The Future of AFL Card Collecting

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After yesterday's Legacy news and a big 2024 from Select, I went to bed last night thinking about what the future looks like, specifically regarding many of our PCs.

Over the past 12 months I've seen some cards that sit proudly in my PC be slashed in value. Dustin Martin Showstopper for one comes to mind, a card numbered to 40 that would have commanded up to $1000 a year or so ago, sat on eBay for months at $599 and ended up selling for what I assume was much less. A similar card, Dustin Martin Gold Brilliance /35 - when released would have been one of the most sought after cards, commanding up to $2000 upon release - now with this years' Brilliance release it feels like it has at least halved in value.

Where do we see our PCs going in value? Obviously collecting isn't an investment exercise for any of us on here, but regardless it would be sad to see cards we have spent good $ on be diluted by consistent big releases.
 
After coming back just before Legacy last year I've been mostly just quietly observing, and to me the outlook is grim.

Accessibility is a big problem. Majority of people now rely on buying directly through Select, who have a two tier system. Anyone new joining the hobby or coming back from a layoff immediately run into the first hurdle that is SCC, a club that is only open for a window at the start of the year, and from what I gather, an almost job application like process.

Then you turn to card stores, which is basically a fools errand. Most stores that get stock (those listed by Select) either don't list it on their site, possibly offering up on Facebook, or simply sit on it for themselves to break. Then you'll see them offer up leftovers packaged with Footy stars.

So basically you have to set aside time to be at your computer for the public sale.

Then of course there's all the anecdotal stories of people having their orders cancelled with no rhyme or reason, while multitudes of listings go up on ebay by flippers before the product is launched.

Then there's the release cycle I've observed; the anticipation for info, the excitement at all these big hits and valuable cards, and then the inevitable disappointment because they got junk for $1000.

It doesn't seem like a whole lost of fun to me. I might be less bitter if there was a series 2 of old, something more accessible to the public, a base set, some sophisticated inserts, and a DPS, to offset the more juvenile Footy Stars.

But as it stands it all just looks like a joyless money pit.
 
If value is the consideration then I think going forward collectors need to be more selective. Focusing on DPS/ rookie cards, Captain Sigs, HOF Sigs. Significant cards that will hold up in value long term. Too many run-of-the-mill short print cards ie Influential, Show stopper, Marquee etc that to me are just inserts with no significance that 10-15 years down the track won’t be sought after.
 
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There are only so many players on an AFL teams list, and only so many past players worthy of being on a trading card. This wasn’t an issue 10 years ago with 2 releases a year, maybe a third with Future Force, the spread was good. But with 5ish releases a year and stacked inserts per releases, I honestly think we’ve reached a point where players that I got excited about having a high end card previously I’m now just like “oh look, another Hodgey” lol. The market is absolutely saturated and I personally don’t like it like that. We barely get time to chase cards and relax and another release gets announced. Select don’t care because every release sells out.
 
I agree and disagree. I think that as a collector, you collect because you want it and the over saturated market makes it easier to collect.

For price and value, I think it is not a card from last year or 10 years ago that is of value. I reckon it’s the 30 year old card that is where a collector sees their return on investment but you have to have bought it in the first few years. Why 30 years you ask, simple, most people cannot afford the thousand dollar price tags until they retire and that is when you tend to spend a bit more on those things you want from when you were a kid. Even an over saturated market today will not have many cards in great condition left in 30 years and even more so when there was limited numbers of that specific card on release.
 
Interesting reading guys I myself in the past 2 years probably this year more so have questioned where this collecting is heading
I have collected for over 40 years mainly NFL and AFL and feel there is to much and to quick
I totally understand select are selling out so why stop producing after all it’s a business without any competition really
Don’t get me wrong some of there releases are so much a better quality card than in the early days and look great
As far as the value in them that’s where I feel they have saturated the market just like supremacy which are beautiful cards
I would say within 3 -4 weeks of release prices not on all but a lot have dropped as collectors and non collectors need to recoupe funds for there own pc or a new release which is disappointing
So if u r selling you have a short period to cash in then on the flip side if you are buying I guess it’s a good time to wait a few weeks and get them at the lesser price
I miss the fun of collecting a rookie and hoping he becomes a star like I have done for many years in NFL but seems harder in AFL as it’s all hype
I feel sorry for guys paying mass amounts for daicos because this his peak a Brownlow won’t make his cards anymore valuable as they r already at a max
Just my 2 cents I will always collect and enjoy trading which is the best part
 
It doesn't seem like a whole lost of fun to me. I might be less bitter if there was a series 2 of old, something more accessible to the public, a base set, some sophisticated inserts, and a DPS, to offset the more juvenile Footy Stars.

The series two of old I remember was paying over $200 for a box and half of them had a Freo/North Melbourne etc tier certified signature worth $30 as the best hit.

Don't get me wrong, 2018 Legacy was one of my favourite sets ever so I totally understand the sentiment, but Select have improved their product in leaps and bounds over the past 4-5 years, and generally have given collectors what they were clamouring for years ago when they'd complain about all the missed opportunities in series one and two, as well as the hole in the market for an ultra premium release.

The biggest problem I can see is the infiltration of breaks into the hobby, and unfortunately while people fight for spots and sell them out in a matter of minutes things will stay the same. Without breakers the secondary market for sealed boxes would die, the demand for Select products would fade away and we'd eventually get back to some level of normality in the hobby. Perhaps a happy medium between what the hobby was, which let's be honest had room for improvement, and what the hobby has become, an overload of short printed flavour of the month inserts unlikely to hold significant value over the long term.
 
I am going to preface this by saying this is just my opinion based on my own experiences, what I am seeing daily and where I personally think AFL card collecting is going.

During Covid, we saw collecting become popular again but this was mainly driven by investors wanting to dabble in breaking and flipping, not collectors. Once Covid was over and people went back to work and could return to their regular hobbies, we saw who the real collectors were because quite obviously, they stuck around and continued to collect. It was around that time that I saw rumours of Select bringing out higher-end products, grading AFL cards became more popular (with many pushing for it to become "a thing") and I started to see a lot of the North American ways of collecting/investing shine through the AFL card community here. I said to a few friends that Select are now going to capatalise on this and become money hungry with products and limiting where they can be bought from and how. Therefore, it would be pricing out parents who buy for their kids, kids themselves with pocket money and casual collectors who just want to buy from the local servo or newsagent here and there like the old days.

Fast-forward to this very day and I would say that this is where the scene has headed. We have many flippers, people grading and selling and you can't just get packs here and there so easily anymore. It seems that people care more about the value of packs rather than the cards themselves. I ask myself every now and then; "what happened to finding your favourite players in packs?" Now, all I see is people skipping over any cards that aren't a "hit" and of course, in my opinion, sheep will be sheep. If people see others making money from cards, not caring about anything other than numbered cards, etc, etc, well, they will follow suit. The scene is becoming Americanised and whilst some people probably WANT prices to go up and stock to be harder to get from stores, I think it's bollocks.

I used to buy boxes of pretty much any release that Select put out because I love opening AFL cards. That will never change. However, I had to adapt and realise that the prices of these boxes keep going up, and up and up! I only collect Footy Stars now because they are easily purchasable from many outlets. If I want any nicer cards or what have you, forget it. I consistently miss out on product launch days and there is no chance I am going to buy from eBay or wherever else people like to jack the prices. I just feel that the soul of collecting has been sucked from the life of the hobby and the only way to stop that from happening to you personally is to set yourself boundaries and come to a happy medium with what you collect. I went to a card show not so long ago and saw kids trying to trade graded AFL cards, sell them, even people trying to UPSELL kids on cards. For me, it's just trash. I'm not saying I don't get it, because I very much do, but it doesn't mean I like it or think it's good for collecting. It's supposed to be fun. You're supposed to pull cards and chat about it with your mates, trade, maybe even start a collection together. I know the good ol' days are gone and we need move on, but I simply think that the scene now is all about "how much can I get for this"", rather than "how cool is this?"

Each to their own, I say, but I can't say the hobby is in a great place to be honest.
 
Yeah one facet that I've come back to that I held back on mentioning, was the increased focus on value and ROI. Boxes are always a gamble, cards are a product like anything else, the only value is the one we place on them, and if demand were to die tomorrow, so would their value. Yet there's this expectation that you should always break even, or come out ahead on what you paid. We all see the checklists, someone has to get those cards, not everyone "wins".

Maybe I learned my lesson 10 years ago, busting tins of The Cup; never spend more than you're willing to lose.

I think the last box of series 2 I bought was Honours 1, for about $205. That's about $260 in today's money. So there's still a pretty big jump in cost from Footy Stars to everything else. And given there was only 2 or 3 releases a year, spending $200 on a box of series 2 wasn't a huge financial burden. Compare that to this year where between Brilliance ($250), Supremacy ($895), Brownlow, ($295) and Legacy Ultimate ($359), its totaled $1796 in 7 months. And that's just one box of each.

No to mention a DPS was the only guaranteed sig you could pull, and team collector's were happy to get them. Didn't matter if it was $30, there was probably someone willing to trade for it, to fill out your own collection. And because there's now 3-4 premium products a year people are starting to worry older cards, once exclusive, starting to devalue, because the market is now flooded with more sig's and shorter prints of the same players. Can't be too long before we start seeing 1 of 1's.

Everyone has their own philosophy, and ultimately there is no right or wrong, simply what the hobby dictates. And given Select's releases sell out in minutes, I am in the minority and nothing is going to change anytime soon. But I can't help but feel the whole thing has lost is soul. And I feel the future is grim, because how are new collectors going to replace those that fall away, with such a high financial burden, and lack of accessibility.
 
Yeah one facet that I've come back to that I held back on mentioning, was the increased focus on value and ROI. Boxes are always a gamble, cards are a product like anything else, the only value is the one we place on them, and if demand were to die tomorrow, so would their value. Yet there's this expectation that you should always break even, or come out ahead on what you paid. We all see the checklists, someone has to get those cards, not everyone "wins".

It depends on the mindset and desires of the collector. I am talking about the collector here, not the investor.

Opening packs or boxes is not a gamble to someone who truly loves cards. These people open packs because they love the hobby, not to gamble on whether they get something valuable or not. Having said that, overall, the word gamble can still be used in a sense that we are outlaying money with no idea what we'll get.

Likewise about breaking even or profiting. Take me for example; I buy boxes and single packs but I never calculate if I broke even or made any money. Why? It doesn't interest me. The cards interest me and this was my overall point of my previous comment. My view is that there are way more people putting emphasis on the value of cards rather than the designs, the joy of opening packs, getting their favourite team's players, etc.
 
Its so valuable to me to get the advice of anyone who has a ebay reseller account ,sells at markets ,and collects as well,because you get an overall perspective of the industry ,macro and micro ,the feeling on the streets ,and the design changes over the years. It is these people who carry the struggle forward because they see it from all angles. A definition that needs looking at these days is what separates a collector from an investor. Collectors value the experience ,whereas investors will stack a card they don't care about based on a perceived dollar sign. I don't hate ,only appreciate these differences ,as we have all done these things. Its when a person puts away 20 of one card that they don't need to and expects people to agree they are smart, but usually many take a dim view of such practices as it stops the father and son duo getting just one of their needed card each series.

A little consideration goes a long way these days. I recently changed my focus from being a team collector to around 12 of my favorite players from our history. this was based on a combination of investing (Cotchin) and raw nostalgia (Matty Knights) Having that understanding of cards in the folder for your reasons and no one else's is the key to beating the economic curve we all feel pressure from.That,and being disciplined. Credit and afterpay do not mix well with cards from what i've witnessed.Find a way to experience the randomness of collecting with boxes ,and the specific nature of the pick up on ebay that you have hunted for years. if neither of those things drive you on its time to get out.
 
Its so valuable to me to get the advice of anyone who has a ebay reseller account ,sells at markets ,and collects as well,because you get an overall perspective of the industry ,macro and micro ,the feeling on the streets ,and the design changes over the years. It is these people who carry the struggle forward because they see it from all angles. A definition that needs looking at these days is what separates a collector from an investor. Collectors value the experience ,whereas investors will stack a card they don't care about based on a perceived dollar sign. I don't hate ,only appreciate these differences ,as we have all done these things. Its when a person puts away 20 of one card that they don't need to and expects people to agree they are smart, but usually many take a dim view of such practices as it stops the father and son duo getting just one of their needed card each series.

A little consideration goes a long way these days. I recently changed my focus from being a team collector to around 12 of my favorite players from our history. this was based on a combination of investing (Cotchin) and raw nostalgia (Matty Knights) Having that understanding of cards in the folder for your reasons and no one else's is the key to beating the economic curve we all feel pressure from.That,and being disciplined. Credit and afterpay do not mix well with cards from what i've witnessed.Find a way to experience the randomness of collecting with boxes ,and the specific nature of the pick up on ebay that you have hunted for years. if neither of those things drive you on its time to get out.

This is well said.
 
Hi all.

Really interesting reading in this thread. Just wanted to add my really useless 2 cents into the mix. Just some random thoughts I thought I would get into words about why I left.

I was a team collector all my life (and still trying to backfill some missing cards), but left the hobby (ie collecting each year) at the end of 2021. That was a very sharp turning point for me when both collectors and investors really became involved post Covid. At that point, Select (as the major player) seemed to face a real fork in the road. Suddenly within a few years we went from two releases to five. We went from a handful of numbered cards per release, to numbering every card that wasn't base set. We went from multiple styles of cards within a release, to the same card printed grey, orange, blue and green. They saw 'investor' types becoming involved, and hit the gas.

From business point of view, this looks great as they sold out releases almost immediately. Select made their money. And if it works, why not do it again. They either didn't care, or didn't pay attention to what began happening downstream (and is now picking up serious pace). This isn't America with 330 million people. This is less than 30 million people, with AFL collectors largely concentrated in one state. It is simply not sustainable to have that many cards on the secondary market and retain any value. Look at what happed with the 'big hits' in the huge releases. Something like a Supremacy quad sig goes to one of the big resellers (because of course it does, none of us are going to hit it in out 1 box). Then it sits on ebay priced at $20,000 for years and years. There is not the cash or people interested to sustain that type of hobby.

The card that was my lightbulb moment, was the gold /25 version of the headliners a few years back. Just a basic card in a numbered version, going for between $1000 and $1500. One card within about 4 releases that year. As a Saints supporter who has been in the hobby all my life, do I know 25 people in the entire hobby willing to pay that for that Jack Steele non auto, non patch card? To pay double what I paid for an iconic Harvey 01 captain sig? Roughly the price of a Lockett or Baldock HOF card? Hell no. And of the people I did know, myself and two others have left. Are investors going to buy that card on the secondary market, and put it away to sell later. Hell no. Who is the audience for that card? Its not team collectors (who already have that card without the gold trimming for $20 and still need to complete the set. Its not investors on the secondary market. The market for that card is the flippers who get to promise a high end hit, but who have no interest in keeping it. They are the ones who are now looking for buyers that simply don't exist. I am still backfilling my collection, so look all the time on Ebay. I see multiple of this card for sale around $500 bucks. 0 takers. Who was that card for?

Or take the patch sig in the second supremacy release. Missed out on a box because I had a big weekend. So now I cant trade here unless I pay double or more for a box on the secondary market. Hence I have to buy that Montagna on the secondary market. Okay. Someone listed that card almost straight away at $2800 on Ebay. I'm not paying that after picking up a Rooey 2 years earlier for $500. Plus I have other great cards in that series I want. So I left it on watch. Its still there. He hasn't dropped his price because for reasons I cant understand he sees it as worth that. Perhaps he thinks it will become a grail card for someone like me. But it doesn't as sooo many cards are being pumped out. Its just not that special. And I cant afford to stay in the hobby at those prices. So what happens, its still there. There simply isn't 25 Saints supporters in the hobby that can pay close to that each year for one card.

I wrote a big thing when I left the hobby, but the essential point was that 2 consistent releases a year is enough. One low end kid focused release with lots of cards, and one high end release with numbered cards with sigs and memorabilia in the second (not just numbers. Dont get me started on the quality of some stuff Select has rushed out). Then every couple of years hit us with a supremacy type. Three tiers. Everyone gets a bite at what they want. That is what you do if you were building the a sustainable business for collectors in a market this size. For me, the ridiculous amount of cards being produced now means that nothing holds any value. Everything cant be special.

But while Select are selling out of boxes every release, why will they care about what people like me want. They get their money regardless. So they will just produce as many sets as they can every year until it all comes tumbling down. At some stage they will try and scale it all right back, but my guess is they are in for a shock when they find the grassroots hollowed out. Its short term profit prioritised over long-term sustainability. A focus on growth, rather than longevity and loyalty. Its sad, but when it goes from collecting to investing, that is that attitude. Problem is there are a lot better investments out there, and you killed the collectors like me trying to get investors into the market. So I wouldn't be surprised if when they scale back (and my guess is they will have to pretty dramatically at some stage), they will find the original foundation is just not there anymore. Its easy for them to say their business is the box, and they have no control over the secondary market. But that is a load of s**t, and without looking after the secondary collector, their business will suffer in the longer term (and they will be back where they were a decade ago, or worse).

Maybe I am wrong here. Maybe people have a lot more disposable income then myself and the people I know. Maybe this can be a business with year on year growth. But personally I think they had it right for collectors like me about 2016 - 2019 ish. Prestige was the real turning point for me. Now its just way way too much, and outside of a few people in this forum and breakers, I genuinely have no idea who the audience is for a lot of what they release now.

Anyway, that is just me. Always glad to see people on here who still collect!
 
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Hi all.

Really interesting reading in this thread. Just wanted to add my really useless 2 cents into the mix. Just some random thoughts I thought I would get into words about why I left.

I was a team collector all my life (and still trying to backfill some missing cards), but left the hobby (ie collecting each year) at the end of 2021. That was a very sharp turning point for me when both collectors and investors really became involved post Covid. At that point, Select (as the major player) seemed to face a real fork in the road. Suddenly within a few years we went from two releases to five. We went from a handful of numbered cards per release, to numbering every card that wasn't base set. We went from multiple styles of cards within a release, to the same card printed grey, orange, blue and green. They saw 'investor' types becoming involved, and hit the gas.

From business point of view, this looks great as they sold out releases almost immediately. Select made their money. And if it works, why not do it again. They either didn't care, or didn't pay attention to what began happening downstream (and is now picking up serious pace). This isn't America with 330 million people. This is less than 30 million people, with AFL collectors largely concentrated in one state. It is simply not sustainable to have that many cards on the secondary market and retain any value. Look at what happed with the 'big hits' in the huge releases. Something like a Supremacy quad sig goes to one of the big resellers (because of course it does, none of us are going to hit it in out 1 box). Then it sits on ebay priced at $20,000 for years and years. There is not the cash or people interested to sustain that type of hobby.

The card that was my lightbulb moment, was the gold /25 version of the headliners a few years back. Just a basic card in a numbered version, going for between $1000 and $1500. One card within about 4 releases that year. As a Saints supporter who has been in the hobby all my life, do I know 25 people in the entire hobby willing to pay that for that Jack Steele non auto, non patch card? To pay double what I paid for an iconic Harvey 01 captain sig? Roughly the price of a Lockett or Baldock HOF card? Hell no. And of the people I did know, myself and two others have left. Are investors going to buy that card on the secondary market, and put it away to sell later. Hell no. Who is the audience for that card? Its not team collectors (who already have that card without the gold trimming for $20 and still need to complete the set. Its not investors on the secondary market. The market for that card is the flippers who get to promise a high end hit, but who have no interest in keeping it. They are the ones who are now looking for buyers that simply don't exist. I am still backfilling my collection, so look all the time on Ebay. I see multiple of this card for sale around $500 bucks. 0 takers. Who was that card for?

Or take the patch sig in the second supremacy release. Missed out on a box because I had a big weekend. So now I cant trade here unless I pay double or more for a box on the secondary market. Hence I have to buy that Montagna on the secondary market. Okay. Someone listed that card almost straight away at $2800 on Ebay. I'm not paying that after picking up a Rooey 2 years earlier for $500. Plus I have other great cards in that series I want. So I left it on watch. Its still there. He hasn't dropped his price because for reasons I cant understand he sees it as worth that. Perhaps he thinks it will become a grail card for someone like me. But it doesn't as sooo many cards are being pumped out. Its just not that special. And I cant afford to stay in the hobby at those prices. So what happens, its still there. There simply isn't 25 Saints supporters in the hobby that can pay close to that each year for one card.

I wrote a big thing when I left the hobby, but the essential point was that 2 consistent releases a year is enough. One low end kid focused release with lots of cards, and one high end release with numbered cards with sigs and memorabilia in the second (not just numbers. Dont get me started on the quality of some stuff Select has rushed out). Then every couple of years hit us with a supremacy type. Three tiers. Everyone gets a bite at what they want. That is what you do if you were building the a sustainable business for collectors in a market this size. For me, the ridiculous amount of cards being produced now means that nothing holds any value. Everything cant be special.

But while Select are selling out of boxes every release, why will they care about what people like me want. They get their money regardless. So they will just produce as many sets as they can every year until it all comes tumbling down. At some stage they will try and scale it all right back, but my guess is they are in for a shock when they find the grassroots hollowed out. Its short term profit prioritised over long-term sustainability. A focus on growth, rather than longevity and loyalty. Its sad, but when it goes from collecting to investing, that is that attitude. Problem is there are a lot better investments out there, and you killed the collectors like me trying to get investors into the market. So I wouldn't be surprised if when they scale back (and my guess is they will have to pretty dramatically at some stage), they will find the original foundation is just not there anymore. Its easy for them to say their business is the box, and they have no control over the secondary market. But that is a load of s**t, and without looking after the secondary collector, their business will suffer in the longer term (and they will be back where they were a decade ago, or worse).

Maybe I am wrong here. Maybe people have a lot more disposable income then myself and the people I know. Maybe this can be a business with year on year growth. But personally I think they had it right for collectors like me about 2016 - 2019 ish. Prestige was the real turning point for me. Now its just way way too much, and outside of a few people in this forum and breakers, I genuinely have no idea who the audience is for a lot of what they release now.

Anyway, that is just me. Always glad to see people on here who still collect!

A lot of very valid points here! Well said!
 
The industry has definitely changed, some for the better some not . I will focus on the positives.
The quality of the cards has never been better imo .There are also a lot more people involved too.
Also bigger variety of signature cards of past players which I like .
 
After yesterday's Legacy news and a big 2024 from Select, I went to bed last night thinking about what the future looks like, specifically regarding many of our PCs.

Over the past 12 months I've seen some cards that sit proudly in my PC be slashed in value. Dustin Martin Showstopper for one comes to mind, a card numbered to 40 that would have commanded up to $1000 a year or so ago, sat on eBay for months at $599 and ended up selling for what I assume was much less. A similar card, Dustin Martin Gold Brilliance /35 - when released would have been one of the most sought after cards, commanding up to $2000 upon release - now with this years' Brilliance release it feels like it has at least halved in value.

Where do we see our PCs going in value? Obviously collecting isn't an investment exercise for any of us on here, but regardless it would be sad to see cards we have spent good $ on be diluted by consistent big releases.
I am a collector so although value of some cards is a nice benefit, it’s not my main aim.
I do still think there are certain cards that overtime will hold their value regardless of the amount of cards out there.
Hall of fame Legend signatures, Captain signatures, both iconic.
Supremacy Premiership folklore and glory, Father son signatures, 300 game signatures, Brilliance Captain Coach signatures and Draft pick signatures . And in time, the Brownlow signature set, HOF inductee signatures.
If you really are after a good investment holding an unopened box or two each year for at least 5 to 10 yrs is not a bad idea either. Something I would never have considered 5 or 6 yrs ago.
 
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End of day no one is going to win
I remember seeing so many people complain around the 2020/2021 stage about how expensive individual cards were and things like dusty tax, with tigers fan being pissed how expensive their team cards were and dusty. Now I still see tigers fans and dusty collectors complaining that their team cards are now too cheap and dusty cards are too cheap with an influential that can’t even sell for $600.

I think people need to be more selective with their collecting and consider sentimental value. That’s why I went from collecting everything north Melbourne to just 2 players and it’s best decision ever collecting wise. I never feel a sense to sell them only if a spare. I’m happy individual cards are cheap like I can get an archer hof sig for $130.

Moral of story. No one is ever gonna win or be happy. Someone will says there’s too many releases, someone will say there isn’t enough. Try narrow down your collection to cards you could never replace rather than complete a set for the sake of it or buy a rookie from a few years back thats now delisted and never heard of.
Some of my archer jumper numbers will be coming to my grave, as it gives me so much joy as he was my hero and had his 11 signed on my back. Doesn’t matter the state of the hobby. Good luck to everyone in going forward with collecting.
 
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