Hi all.
Really interesting reading in this thread. Just wanted to add my really useless 2 cents into the mix. Just some random thoughts I thought I would get into words about why I left.
I was a team collector all my life (and still trying to backfill some missing cards), but left the hobby (ie collecting each year) at the end of 2021. That was a very sharp turning point for me when both collectors and investors really became involved post Covid. At that point, Select (as the major player) seemed to face a real fork in the road. Suddenly within a few years we went from two releases to five. We went from a handful of numbered cards per release, to numbering every card that wasn't base set. We went from multiple styles of cards within a release, to the same card printed grey, orange, blue and green. They saw 'investor' types becoming involved, and hit the gas.
From business point of view, this looks great as they sold out releases almost immediately. Select made their money. And if it works, why not do it again. They either didn't care, or didn't pay attention to what began happening downstream (and is now picking up serious pace). This isn't America with 330 million people. This is less than 30 million people, with AFL collectors largely concentrated in one state. It is simply not sustainable to have that many cards on the secondary market and retain any value. Look at what happed with the 'big hits' in the huge releases. Something like a Supremacy quad sig goes to one of the big resellers (because of course it does, none of us are going to hit it in out 1 box). Then it sits on ebay priced at $20,000 for years and years. There is not the cash or people interested to sustain that type of hobby.
The card that was my lightbulb moment, was the gold /25 version of the headliners a few years back. Just a basic card in a numbered version, going for between $1000 and $1500. One card within about 4 releases that year. As a Saints supporter who has been in the hobby all my life, do I know 25 people in the entire hobby willing to pay that for that Jack Steele non auto, non patch card? To pay double what I paid for an iconic Harvey 01 captain sig? Roughly the price of a Lockett or Baldock HOF card? Hell no. And of the people I did know, myself and two others have left. Are investors going to buy that card on the secondary market, and put it away to sell later. Hell no. Who is the audience for that card? Its not team collectors (who already have that card without the gold trimming for $20 and still need to complete the set. Its not investors on the secondary market. The market for that card is the flippers who get to promise a high end hit, but who have no interest in keeping it. They are the ones who are now looking for buyers that simply don't exist. I am still backfilling my collection, so look all the time on Ebay. I see multiple of this card for sale around $500 bucks. 0 takers. Who was that card for?
Or take the patch sig in the second supremacy release. Missed out on a box because I had a big weekend. So now I cant trade here unless I pay double or more for a box on the secondary market. Hence I have to buy that Montagna on the secondary market. Okay. Someone listed that card almost straight away at $2800 on Ebay. I'm not paying that after picking up a Rooey 2 years earlier for $500. Plus I have other great cards in that series I want. So I left it on watch. Its still there. He hasn't dropped his price because for reasons I cant understand he sees it as worth that. Perhaps he thinks it will become a grail card for someone like me. But it doesn't as sooo many cards are being pumped out. Its just not that special. And I cant afford to stay in the hobby at those prices. So what happens, its still there. There simply isn't 25 Saints supporters in the hobby that can pay close to that each year for one card.
I wrote a big thing when I left the hobby, but the essential point was that 2 consistent releases a year is enough. One low end kid focused release with lots of cards, and one high end release with numbered cards with sigs and memorabilia in the second (not just numbers. Dont get me started on the quality of some stuff Select has rushed out). Then every couple of years hit us with a supremacy type. Three tiers. Everyone gets a bite at what they want. That is what you do if you were building the a sustainable business for collectors in a market this size. For me, the ridiculous amount of cards being produced now means that nothing holds any value. Everything cant be special.
But while Select are selling out of boxes every release, why will they care about what people like me want. They get their money regardless. So they will just produce as many sets as they can every year until it all comes tumbling down. At some stage they will try and scale it all right back, but my guess is they are in for a shock when they find the grassroots hollowed out. Its short term profit prioritised over long-term sustainability. A focus on growth, rather than longevity and loyalty. Its sad, but when it goes from collecting to investing, that is that attitude. Problem is there are a lot better investments out there, and you killed the collectors like me trying to get investors into the market. So I wouldn't be surprised if when they scale back (and my guess is they will have to pretty dramatically at some stage), they will find the original foundation is just not there anymore. Its easy for them to say their business is the box, and they have no control over the secondary market. But that is a load of s**t, and without looking after the secondary collector, their business will suffer in the longer term (and they will be back where they were a decade ago, or worse).
Maybe I am wrong here. Maybe people have a lot more disposable income then myself and the people I know. Maybe this can be a business with year on year growth. But personally I think they had it right for collectors like me about 2016 - 2019 ish. Prestige was the real turning point for me. Now its just way way too much, and outside of a few people in this forum and breakers, I genuinely have no idea who the audience is for a lot of what they release now.
Anyway, that is just me. Always glad to see people on here who still collect!