He's at over 97% chance to make it. I would put that at slightly better than slim...
Despite the craziness, when he gets to 20k points he will be a lock — if he isn't already.
The only 20k scorers who are eligible for the Hall of Fame and are not in are Antawn Jamison (20042), Tom Chambers (20049), Joe Johnson (20407) and LaMarcus Aldridge (20558). Carmelo Anthony (28289) goes in this year. So, pretty much get 20k and you are golden!