Basketball Hall of Fame Debate

[dvl_402]

VC has had a great career so far - for me, only lacking in his CV is the lack of all-nba teams. made it twice as per wikipedia.
but if calvin murphy made it, then i guess VC should as well.

 

[drobfan8]

I guess that's where opinions differ bud. I mean Yao brought a billion fans and a few million bucks worth of revenue to the game, so that's an automatic in??

Oh look I agree with you there. He doesn't have the longevity to be in there, but he will be there.

I liked the talk of an NBA hof, that way it would become more strict.

 

[dvl_402]

I guess that's where opinions differ bud. I mean Yao brought a billion fans and a few million bucks worth of revenue to the game, so that's an automatic in??

yao made it to 5 all-nba teams, same as richmond. he should be in i think.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

here's from the blog by Justin, someone asked about a Questionable HOF'ers list-


Here’s the bottom five by this method:

Frank Ramsey — 26
Ralph Sampson — 26
K.C. Jones — 21
Bill Bradley — 20
Arvydas Sabonis — 8

Some extenuating circumstances here: Sampson and Bradley were both fantastic college players, while Sabonis was an international star before coming to the NBA.

 

[spanishsahara]

I don't think it should be all about the stats and the all star games etc. some of the guys in the list of examples being talked about have done a lot more than their stats imply.

Carter influenced the game in such a massive way, you could probably say fairly that the game wouldn't be the same today with what he did. I know I've seen plenty of interviews with top stars saying how they grew up wanting to do what vc did.

Yao did tons for the game internationally and that is not to be taken lightly at all, this is more than just an argument about how much money he brought in, he spread the sport internationally, to a country with a ton of people no less, that is massive for the sport. Maybe it's too soon to see now, but we could see talented players come out of Asia in the future who never would have considered the sport if not for him and his popularity.

Laimbeer? A fantastic leader and heart of one of the most classic and popular/infamous teams ever to play, that's not showing up on a stat sheet or a run down of all star appearances.

Also, to say no or even maybe to ray Allen is just mental, if it is gonna be about stats then there is no way you leave him out with the career he's had, not to mention his record in such an important, points based area

 

[edabomb]

you're going on current standards yeah? Looks good to me. I did mine above on reigning it in a little hence no Billups etc. Given the Bosh stats even if he retired now it looks like he's 1st ballot. seems weird. Hang on, let me see what number I get using that method, 60 doesn't seem right....

Yeah current standards. Similar to you I don't really see a guy like Billups being HoF calibre personally - but you definitely have to give it to him with that Finals MVP.

 

[edabomb]

I'm going to have to disagree with a few of these.

VC = yes, easily
Webber = yes, was a part of a team that changed College basketball, plus has the accolades to back it up.
Laimbeer = yes, anybody that's such a huge part of a team that got through the Cs and the Lakers will go in the hall.
B. Wallace = YES!!!! He was a defensive beast.

VC probably will get there. Not first ballot though - I will stand by that.
Webber - if his College team had won something I would agree. No team championships at College, NBA or International hurt him. Which is really harsh given what a great team player he came to be in Sac.
Laimbeer - 13 and 10 career stats. I don't see him getting there - if he does then Robert Horry has to get in a few years later.
Ben Wallace - You are right - it's not really a debate with those 4 DPoY awards. That really puts him in elite company, moreso than he deserves IMO.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

who's got a fringe player we can talk about or figure out the score for?

 

[dvl_402]

How about a current player? Carmelo "$$$" Anthony - extremely talented, but has only reached Conf Finals once (with Denver). Regular first round exit.

 

[drobfan8]

How about a current player? Carmelo "$$$" Anthony - extremely talented, but has only reached Conf Finals once (with Denver). Regular first round exit.

Hard to say no to him, especially seeing as he has probably 4 more very good years left at least.

Team USA member multiple times, how many All Stars?

Probably the best scorer in the League. Missed the Playoffs once.

HOF written all over it.

Reminds me of Iverson in a way, I doubt he'll ever win the big one.

 

[dvl_402]

Hard to say no to him, especially seeing as he has probably 4 more very good years left at least.

Team USA member multiple times, how many All Stars?

Probably the best scorer in the League. Missed the Playoffs once.

HOF written all over it.

Reminds me of Iverson in a way, I doubt he'll ever win the big one.

Yeah, he had a great opportunity with Chicago this offseason and he let it go

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

How about a current player? Carmelo "$$$" Anthony - extremely talented, but has only reached Conf Finals once (with Denver). Regular first round exit.

Carmelo = 15 (assuming 1000 games) + 20 + 2 (6reb/gm avg) + 0 + 16 (assuming 8 all stars) + 0 + 0 = 53


certainly makes it into consideration. current standard = yes, my new one would probably be yes too but under review lol
he's basically going to finish like Paul Pierce without the ring, a few less rebounds and steals.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

Well just found the artice on Melo on that site lol - he came up with a score of 47 though (did it to current time not estimating a few things)


http://hoopsmanifesto.com/articles/basketball/call-to-the-hall-carmelo-anthony.html

 

[mat2323]

Yes or No? (not all retired yet so may have more accomplishments to help)

Steve Nash
Vince Carter
Yao Ming
Tracy McGrady
Derek Fisher
Ray Allen
Chris Webber
Bill Laimbeer
Jermaine O'Neal
Chauncey Billups
Pau Gasol
Grant Hill
Stephon Marbury
Ben Wallace
Chris Bosh

I think all Mvp's should go in, that's the only reason Nash should go in,, vc no, Yao no, but will because of the huge amount of Asian fans he bought the the nba, Tracy no, Derek no, Ray no, webber no, bill no, o'neal no, billions yes,MVP, gasol no, hill no, Marburg a big no, Wallace no, bosh a no for sure, people might no like my view, but to many "good" players are getting in, and I like a lot of these players, but alot are not HOF

 

[edabomb]

Hard to say no to him, especially seeing as he has probably 4 more very good years left at least.

Team USA member multiple times, how many All Stars?

Probably the best scorer in the League. Missed the Playoffs once.

HOF written all over it.

Reminds me of Iverson in a way, I doubt he'll ever win the big one.

Carmello has quite a similar career to Dominique. A rival of the best in the game but never really went close to his team success.

Dominique is in so I think Carmello definitely makes it in - and probably first ballot on the back of his NCAA and Olympic success.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

I think all Mvp's should go in, that's the only reason Nash should go in,, vc no, Yao no, but will because of the huge amount of Asian fans he bought the the nba, Tracy no, Derek no, Ray no, webber no, bill no, o'neal no, billions yes,MVP, gasol no, hill no, Marburg a big no, Wallace no, bosh a no for sure, people might no like my view, but to many "good" players are getting in, and I like a lot of these players, but alot are not HOF

I would say multiple MVPs for sure and single MVPs considered. Let's say DRose gets injured again next season and has to retire, he wouldn't go in simply because of that one MVP

 

[mat2323]

I would say multiple MVPs for sure and single MVPs considered. Let's say DRose gets injured again next season and has to retire, he wouldn't go in simply because of that one MVP

Fair point, but to be even a MVP for one season is still a amazing achevement, with all of the talent in the nba, and he won it at such a young age makes it even more amazing, can see the argument the other way, I think it's a hard thing to decide, I mean I see both sides, take for example Mitch Richmond, he was a very good player, 3 point ace, all star, 20 ppg, but so have about 600 other players, not to sure how Mitch got in, but what I worry about is big market players making it but not small market players, Patrick Ewing all star, 20ppg player, all the same as Mitch, but can't see them keeping him out, so one could argue that if Ewing is in so should be Richmond, is a crappy job because everyone is always going to be second guessing everyone who gets in

 

[spanishsahara]

Just throwing it out there, rasheed wallace needs to make it in solely on the back of his tech foul record

 

[nichj99]

I stumbled on another formula, be interested to see how they compare.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Building the Model
For the Hall of Fame problem, I tried to use as many predictor variables as I could think of, but I did not use statistics that have not been kept for most of the NBA's history (e.g., steals). My player pool consisted of players who had played a minimum of 400 NBA games and had been eligible for at least one Hall of Fame election. After trying numerous models, my final model had seven predictor variables:

1. height (in inches)
2. last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
3. NBA points per game
4. NBA rebounds per game
5. NBA assists per game
6. NBA All-Star game selections
7. NBA championships won

All of the predictors listed above were significant at the 0.05 level. Other than height, all of the predictors had positive coefficients. ABA statistics, honors, and championships were not important predictors of Hall of Fame status, which is why I only used NBA statistics in my final model. I don't like ignoring the ABA statistics, but that's what the voters have apparently done. Keep in mind that my goal was not to determine who in the Hall of Fame, but rather who is likely to be in the Hall of Fame.

The table below gives the parameter estimates of the coefficients for each of the seven predictors:

height -0.1771
last season indicator 3.1498
NBA points per game 0.3433
NBA rebounds per game 0.4193
NBA assists per game 0.3327
NBA All-Star game selections 0.5626
NBA championships won 0.9151

Example
The parameter estimates given in the previous section can be used to obtain the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election for a particular player. I will go through an example using Jo Jo White. Find the values of the seven predictor variables for White, multiply them by the coefficients given in the table above, and find the sum of the products:

height -0.1771 * 75 = -13.2825
last season indicator 3.1498 * 0 = 0
NBA points per game 0.3433 * 17.2031 = 5.9058
NBA rebounds per game 0.4193 * 3.9964 = 1.6757
NBA assists per game 0.3327 * 4.8925 = 1.6277
NBA All-Star game selections 0.5626 * 7 = 3.9382
NBA championships won 0.9151 * 2 = 1.8302
----------------------------------------------------------
1.6951

To find the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election, do the following:

P(HoF election) = 1 / (1 + e**(-(1.6951)))
= 0.845

Based on Jo Jo White's statistics and accomplishments, the probability that he has been elected to the Hall of Fame is 0.845.

Summary
Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of 400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question "If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?". The model was built using a pool of 750 players. One method to assess classification accuracy is to compare the estimated Hall of Fame probability for the case to the actual result. Of the 750 players, 89 had been elected to the Hall of Fame and 661 had not. If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than or equal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 89 players in the Hall of Fame, 74 were correctly classified (83.1%) and 15 were not (16.9%). Of the 661 players not in the Hall of Fame, 651 were correctly classified (98.5%) and 10 were not (1.5%). Overall, 725 of the 750 players (96.7%) were correctly classified by the model.

Based on this, T-Mac;s HOF probability is 58.2%

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

I seen that one but when I saw height factored in there I was like yeah....ok. lol