Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
Don't expect anything outrageous. I don't have any real killer cards.
where to from here??
- Thread starter Billyhoyle
- Start date
Normal folks aren't paying it. At least I think they aren't. The stakes are way too high now. I used to feel shattered paying $300 for a box and getting maybe $50 worth of cards. That $300 box is now $2000 but the ROI hasn't changed. So now you're a good chance of dropping $1500, which is just crazy. Even back when $300 could get you something I would much rather have spent that money on a day at the races. Ripping wax these days makes betting on the horses seem like astute investment practice.
I saw a box of 18/19 Prizm get opened last night. The cost was $8,500 USD. Had that box been a personal box the buyer would've dropped $7 grand easily. Even if they had got PSA10's on all their grade worthy cards( there was a Doncic and Trae base) they still would've lost $5,000. The thing that made me laugh was at the end when the breaker said: "That was a fun break".
I'd love PSA to upcharge me on my current submission.
Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
Ditto.
GarnettFan4Life
OZCT Supporter
I guess it could be taken as a nice problem to have. Then again, why should it cost $50 for a card that would sell on ebay this month for $4999 but they just make it $500 if it goes for $10000
potential conflict of interest in the grade given , no?
potential conflict of interest in the grade given , no?
Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
Of course it's a fun break. They probs charged 500 a spot and there was nothing in it. I'm tempted to do a break for my prizm. 500 a spot and I'll be laughing.
Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
LOL yeah my ebay is just gathering dust...and I have seen all your FB posts trying to sell and nada!
NFL, NBA, AFL...it's a bloody jungle out there
I honestly think (almost) the entire hobby is essentially paused right now as people are forced to recalibrate how they spend, and make, their $$$. Collectors are definitely still buying, but flippers are spinning out figuring out what to do now they have to actually think about it.
Until what, a month ago(?), things were simply on autopilot. Buy card(s) > PSA > wait > sell card(s) > repeat. There wasn't as much selectiveness or care in what people were transacting. If it was a card that you could send to PSA, then it was good to go and you could throw your $$$ at it. Now, well... we can see just how much of the hobby was just following the PSA pipeline. I actually thought to myself at the time that the PSA stop announcement might actually be the wrongly-removed Jenga piece that starts the bursting of the bubble.
That said, I've been selling a bit more than usual lately, but nothing I'm selling is what you'd consider 'fire emoji chart emoji invest!' cards. It's all stuff that set builders and collectors would be after, and I don't think they've stopped buying the bargains at all. The only thing I've noticed is if you list something for $100 BIN for example, more people than ever before will offer like $20
It's a slog, but I read someone say recently that they have to look at every single buy as a business transaction now. That absolutely resonates, which is why I'm at the moment trying to sell almost everything I have that I'm not confident I could move pretty quickly in the future if needed. Collecting low-value cards is absolutely the fun part for me, but being overleveraged into cardboard might not be
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Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
When box prices drop, the end is approaching
GarnettFan4Life
OZCT Supporter
i'm in like 10 groups and thought people would at least buy or join a razz and FLOP lol - people broke from breaks and expensive product for sure!
Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
I don't understand how some people can keep joining breaks. They must be really rich or having gambling issues
We've seen this before.
I'm not surprised at all. If you're busting and trying to sell the contents that will be very hard.
People will only buy the quality stuff.
The good news is that a lot of stuff will be cheap if you're buying and don't need to sell.
I'm not surprised at all. If you're busting and trying to sell the contents that will be very hard.
People will only buy the quality stuff.
The good news is that a lot of stuff will be cheap if you're buying and don't need to sell.
I think for the US sports it's hit saturation point for a lot of cards...... a lot of low end cards and even starting to see it on the higher end sales from the auction houses. I mean how many more times can the Jordan Rookie PSA 10 keep breaking records?
There was a show in Dallas recently where almost all the sellers had volume stock of Zion, Luka and Ja PSA 10 Prizm Rookies and they couldn't be given away. There are just so many of them out there now that supply has demand covered and people who want these cards probably already have them and in multiples.
The box/pack breaking aspect has also hit hard........ I very rarely broke boxes in the past but the thought of paying $7000 USD for a box of Prizm to me borders on insanity. Spots in breaks these days are the same prices you would pay for cases of product in the past.
As always, ultra rare grail type cards will always have a market but once people stop spending stimulus checks on cards etc. and places start opening up post Covid (money being spent on entertainment/movies/concerts/holidays etc.) you may see the market have a correction of sorts.
Interesting times ahead.
GarnettFan4Life
OZCT Supporter
I've started voting with my wallet per se, not entering breaks, not buying boxes of new stuff, only buying what I think is priced right in the way of single cards/graded. We all have to start doing this otherwise why would Panini/resellers change?
GarnettFan4Life
OZCT Supporter
thing is, people not even buying the "quality" stuff lol
My guess is gambling issues.
Iron Clad Lou
OzCardTrader
Like I enter the occasional one (always end up with nothing and regret it for a month), but the same people are buying up to 7 spots/teams nearly every break, week in week out.
Interesting take. I'm very curious as to where it goes from here. The Covid lock down last year was the perfect storm for the hobby. It put a lot of eyes on the hobby and there had to be a significant amount of money flowing in from people who were not able to spend their discretionary dollars on restaurants, holidays, etc. And at the the lower end of the hobby( flippers and pack rippers) those stimulus checks were probably solely spent on cards.
There has to be some investor fatigue as well. People who bought modern basketball cards late last year and early this year are showing a significant paper loss. If those guys decide to cut their losses and move on I can not see how Luka and Zion cards go back up anytime soon. As someone who has been squeezed out of busting wax( not quite but I feel guilty spending that much on a box of cards.) I think the spike in prices last year was on the whole a bad thing. Before Covid hit the hobby was trending slowly upwards and that was ideal. It then exploded in a classic boom/bust scenario. I used to spend a fair bit on wax in 2018 and 2019, much less last year and almost nothing so far this year.
I digressed there but the next 6 months will tell the story. If life returns to some semblance of normality in the US over next few months and people start to spend their money on holidays, restaurants and whatever else they spent their cash on prior to covid it will be interesting to see how much money does move away from sports cards. There seem to be an awful lot of dealers and flippers around now. But if there isn't a continual increase in new people coming in to buy those cards.....
P.S I sold a raw Luka base Prizm for $560USD late last year. At the time that was around the lower spectrum of the price range for that card. I regretted selling at the time but I needed the money. In hindsight I do not regret that sale and I think it will be quite a while before that card goes back up to its historical peak - which I imagine was around the time he sunk the buzzer beater in game 4 against the Clippers last year).
Apologies for the ramble. I love the hobby and would like to see it go back to where it was prior to covid.
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