The 2011 ONEIL RUGBY LEAGUE PRICE GUIDE IS HERE

ooneil · Apr 8, 2011

The 2011 ONeil Rugby League Card Price Guide has arrived.

This 12 page guide covers card prices from the 1988 Scanlen's set all the way to the 2011 Select set.

We have spent 2 years collecting data using E-Bay market data and our own research. We have used statistical models to formulate a genuine guide price for the cards listed.

We are collectors so you can be assured of our independence.

Only $9.95 including postage. Use the link below to purchase from EBay.

2011 ONEIL RUGBY LEAGUE CARD PRICE GUIDE | eBay

Remember, ozcardtrader.com.au gets a commission payment for every sale generated from this site.

Make sure your paying the right price for your cards! Buy it today and tell your friends!

Thanks for looking

1967Sharks · Apr 8, 2011

I am abit sceptical about this. I am curious though, pm me your paypal addy and i will buy it through here.

ooneil · Apr 8, 2011

I appreciate your skepticism and would be to. We first started putting this guide together at the end of the 2009 NRL season. The research we have put in has been exhausting as we did not simply want to make "pie in the sky" values for cards. We believe this guide is a value add for both collectors and seller. Thanks for your interest.

1967Sharks · Apr 8, 2011

Yeah i can imagine its alot of work, I have been tracking prices for high end and even that can be exhausting. Its just so variable, 1 card can sell one day for $xxx and sell for a couple of hundred less a few days later.
Also variable is the condition and price changes from that. Do you want to explain your process of how you came up with these figures?

ooneil · Apr 8, 2011

We utilised Ebay market data with our own sales data. Basically over the past 2 years we have manually tracked via watchlists individual cards and sets. We aimed for a minimum of 25 sales (sometimes more or less depending on turnover) and feed this data into statistical model to find a true average of prices. The statistical inference allowed us to draw reasonable conclusions in regards to price. Once we had this data we tested it by further tracking sales to see if we could purchase cards for the amount we were quoting.

We have only been able to produce data at this stage on post 1988 sets. Pre 1988 do not have the greatest turnover rate (for example we have less than 5 examples of 1986 Scanlen's sets selling) and condition of the cards has a major effect on price (for example you can probably pick up a set of 1980 cards with no checklists in good condition for $400 - however a mint set with unmarked checklists will got for double that). We should have enough data to start publishing prices for these sets in the next edition.

Once again - thanks for your interest.

tak35bne · Apr 8, 2011

Just a quick question, is it delivered in electronic format (pdf file) or as a book?

ooneil · Apr 8, 2011

12 page magazine (free postage) - thanks!

tak35bne · Apr 8, 2011

ooneil said:
12 page magazine (free postage) - thanks!

Thank you for the information, I have just bought it to have a look. This is going to be an interesting read when it arrives.

---------- Post added 08-04-2011 at 02:11 PM ----------

1967Sharks said:
I am abit sceptical about this. I am curious though, pm me your paypal addy and i will buy it through here.

I agree Justin, I am also a bit sceptical about this publication. Magazine releases such as this have the potential to kill the trading card market on sites such as this. So lets look at it from this point of view, ooneil has done a bucket load of work to research prices on ebay etc but we must remember those prices are only his opinion based on a statistical model and they are subjective because the seller only gets what someone is willing to pay. I wonder whether ooneil have factored the odds of pulling a particular card into the equation?

Lets look at the 2011 Champion Silver Parallels, sets have been selling for about $100 - $110 from memory, however in order to make a full set more than one case has to be opened which should push the price of this set somewhere north of $150.

So we have this pricing guide now available, now what if Cardzone puts out its own price guide on NRL, AFL and Cricket etc, we all acknowledge that their prices can be a fair bit higher than normal market price and I would not see Cardzone marking down their price for any reason so now we have two publications in the market that are vastly different in comparitive pricing; who do you trust or reference for pricing.

I reckon we are going to see some crazy times ahead in the value of trading cards. Well that's my two cents worth anyway.

Dave

1967Sharks · Apr 8, 2011

1967Sharks said:
1 card can sell one day for $xxx and sell for a couple of hundred less a few days later.

This is a recent example

2003 NRL SELECT XL Tribute SIGNATURE REDEMPTION | eBay

2003 Select XL NRL Tribute Signature: Steve Mortimer | eBay

ooneil · Apr 8, 2011

Completely agree with all of you guys. Im interested to see how it pans out. We have physically tested the ability to purchase the cards listed and feel reasonably comfortable that with some patience those prices can be achieved. We have put plently of research into and and im a stong believer in the numebrs. (our statisical wizz could talk you to death about validity of his models)

I appreciate you stroking my ego tak35bne however i think your over estimating the potential influence of the guide. Beckketts price guide has traded for years and there has been various AFL incarnations that have only added to the sucess of the industry.

What really influences and impacts the industry is the product. We only have to look at the complete trash Dynamic Marketing produced from '94 to '97 to see the damage that can be done. Things were so bad we did not see any sets produced in 98 and 99 - which was the first time since the early 70's that had happened.

BTW 1967sharks - i was the sucker that paid over the odds for that Mortimer card. Sometimes the addiction takes over.

Check my blog post for more rants about my thinking for this guide.

tak35bne · Apr 8, 2011

ooneil said:
Completely agree with all of you guys. Im interested to see how it pans out. We have physically tested the ability to purchase the cards listed and feel reasonably comfortable that with some patience those prices can be achieved. We have put plently of research into and and im a stong believer in the numebrs. (our statisical wizz could talk you to death about validity of his models)

I appreciate you stroking my ego tak35bne however i think your over estimating the potential influence of the guide. Beckketts price guide has traded for years and there has been various AFL incarnations that have only added to the sucess of the industry.

What really influences and impacts the industry is the product. We only have to look at the complete trash Dynamic Marketing produced from '94 to '97 to see the damage that can be done. Things were so bad we did not see any sets produced in 98 and 99 - which was the first time since the early 70's that had happened.

BTW 1967sharks - i was the sucker that paid over the odds for that Mortimer card. Sometimes the addiction takes over.

Check my blog post for more rants about my thinking for this guide.

Well I for one am looking forward to receiving my mag, bought and paid for it off ebay today (tack35) and I am sure there will be more discussion to come.

Dave

mischap123 · Apr 8, 2011

Interesting thread. I love crunching numbers and we are dealing with variables such as condition which can be subjective. As such I don't envy your position ooneil. I too am sceptical as 25 sales in the last 2 years for some items isn't really statistically reliable but I am happy to be proven wrong. I also think that a guide like this should only go up to the previous year ie up to 2010. I say this because the is always some "hype" around a new product and prices seem to be a little inflated in the short term. Once the dust has settled, more reliable pricing can be analysed IMO

AyiosYiorgos · Apr 9, 2011

The one that sold for $500+ started at 0.99c and had 10 bids, the one that sold for $300 only had the one bid and was sold 4 days after, so what does this tell us, did people get caught up in the bidding process because it started at 0.99c, thinking that they would get a bargain?, the other one stared at $300 you would assume if the other bidders had seen it especially the ones that bid over the $300 would have jumped at it, or because it started high it turned people off, so many variables come in to play, i.e for me if 2 or 3 cards came up (high end) which i wanted realistically i would probably have to choose one of them and let the other's go which may in turn seem a card was sold at a lower price...
Might throw $10 and see...

1967Sharks said:
This is a recent example

2003 NRL SELECT XL Tribute SIGNATURE REDEMPTION | eBay

2003 Select XL NRL Tribute Signature: Steve Mortimer | eBay

sgt_pepper · Apr 9, 2011

/\/\/\ i dont think you can get an accurate price from stats derived off e-bay...
the post above is a prime example of why.
just way too many variables to be taken into account on a item by item basis. some of the variables will also be completely random (depending on the bidder). i think your benchmark of a minimum of 25 sales needs to be much higher for even the slightest hint of accuracy.
lets hope we can all agree on the prices youve set.
just my opinion.

Gameday Online · Apr 9, 2011

I Have sent you a PM.

ooneil · Apr 9, 2011

mischap123 said:
Interesting thread. I love crunching numbers and we are dealing with variables such as condition which can be subjective. As such I don't envy your position ooneil. I too am sceptical as 25 sales in the last 2 years for some items isn't really statistically reliable but I am happy to be proven wrong. I also think that a guide like this should only go up to the previous year ie up to 2010. I say this because the is always some "hype" around a new product and prices seem to be a little inflated in the short term. Once the dust has settled, more reliable pricing can be analysed IMO

Appreciate the feedback mischap123! We had to take 25 as a minimum amount as some cards just don't turn over enough to get a good enough gauge of price. For most we had data of over 100 sales. Of the cards researched sitting around the 25 mark as long as the distribution curve of those prices was not significant we felt comfortable enough to publish the data. I have had one seller ask me to give him the guide for free and he will review all the prices. Im like are you kidding mate - i have 2 years worth of pricing data and you want to correct my prices because you sell cards and therefore think your prices are correct. He got a simple 2 word answer.

We spent time reviewing how Becketts collates and publishes its data and we think our methodology is comparable - but at the end of the day a card will sell for what someone is willing to pay. But if someone buys the guide and it stops them getting ripped off then i win.

Also your completely correct on "hype". We think the current prices being paid for some 2011 champions cards are crazy. Although we followed the data and published the current prices we did make comment that the current prices are more based on demand than common sense. For example the signature cards are selling around $100 and have a production run of 600. I can go and buy a 5 year old future force with a production run of 590 for $40-$50. Complete madness but at the end of the day its simple economics - demand vs supply.

mischap123 · Apr 9, 2011

Owen, I totally agree with you on 2011 sigs and as such have none. But who knows, I may miss out altogether. One other variable is WHO sells the items. Dealers with high FB (eg that most know is Adoniis) ALWAYS fetch premium $$$. I'm using him as an eg only as he mostly sells Scanlens pre 88 stuff but if this guy was to go quiet a while, I think averages would decrease accordingly

Wattsup · Apr 9, 2011

tak35bne said:
So we have this pricing guide now available, now what if Cardzone puts out its own price guide on NRL, AFL and Cricket etc, we all acknowledge that their prices can be a fair bit higher than normal market price and I would not see Cardzone marking down their price for any reason so now we have two publications in the market that are vastly different in comparitive pricing; who do you trust or reference for pricing.

Dave

tak35bne,
Cardzone did bring out a price guide for AFL about 4 years ago, it was basically a largeish volume glossy magazine version of their newspaper prices. The sweetener for people to buy it was there were 3 cards of either Judd or J Brown included, in civvies holding up cards (from memory).
I didnt buy it as I wouldnt use their prices for anything other than what too much to pay for something is, I think it was about $35. If people bought this thinking they were 'normal' market rates then they would have been dudded.

Good luck with the publication ooneil!

thenamesgould · Apr 9, 2011

ooneil said:
Also your completely correct on "hype". We think the current prices being paid for some 2011 champions cards are crazy. Although we followed the data and published the current prices we did make comment that the current prices are more based on demand than common sense. For example the signature cards are selling around $100 and have a production run of 600. I can go and buy a 5 year old future force with a production run of 590 for $40-$50. Complete madness but at the end of the day its simple economics - demand vs supply.

If you went purely off numbers then the 2004 Andrew Johns captain sig would sell for the same price as the Monty Betham. That's one of the interesting things about card collecting, there are so many variables.

Generally this year's sigs are of superior players to the lowly priced future forces you'd see.

I've ordered my copy, and I'm looking forward to seeing it. It seems like a lot of work has gone into it, so well done on that. No valuing method will ever be perfect, but it'll be very interesting to see what I agree with and what I don't!

Could also be a useful tool if I ever get around to insuring my collection.

1967Sharks · Apr 10, 2011

Do you only go by auction price or Buy it now prices too?

The 2011 ONEIL RUGBY LEAGUE PRICE GUIDE IS HERE

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