Riding the wave vs cashing in while the going is good

[1980bust]

Given the much higher focus on maintaining card condition and higher number of cards getting graded I feel there is going to be a massive influx of cards at the 9 and maybe 9.5 mark.

Now obviously no-one is expecting modern cards to have the same distribution of grades as cards from 50+ years ago had. But it would not surprise me if cards of from even the last 12 or so months started to show a statistically significantly higher grade distribution than even those of just a few years ago. If people are slow to adjust to this then they may be paying a premium for a card that is not as rare as they think.

Absolutely this. With all the technology around these days, you'd hope that QC on new cards would be top notch. The "straight from pack to sleeve to grading" approach just makes no sense to me at all. People should expect that every card fresh out of a new pack is a 9+.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

10s would not really fit the bill as you need quite a bit of luck with them given (apparently) only a small number of cards come out of the packs as 10s.

Then there is copping a grader on a bad, stressed out day! So many forks in the road that need to go your way.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Absolutely this. With all the technology around these days, you'd hope that QC on new cards would be top notch. The "straight from pack to sleeve to grading" approach just makes no sense to me at all. People should expect that every card fresh out of a new pack is a 9+.

Watching some NFL Prizm come out, horribly off centre is a real heartbreaker.

It's like they deliberately throw them off

 

[Dodgydave]

Then there is copping a grader on a bad, stressed out day! So many forks in the road that need to go your way.

If I put a tin foil hat on I would ask — is this a strategy? The whole grading system only exists because grading companies have convinced people their cards are more valuable if they get a high grade. This is only true if high graded cards are scarce. Therefore, it is in the grading companies best interests to limit the "supply" of high grades.

Watching some NFL Prizm come out, horribly off centre is a real heartbreaker.

It's like they deliberately throw them off

See, I have never had this. Not that I buy much current product but I do not ever recall opening modern product where cards have been off center or flawed. I had someone trying to tell me most cards that come out of packs would only grade an 8. Not sure if that is true or not but the ones I get have opened always looked pretty dang good!

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I had someone trying to tell me most cards that come out of packs would only grade an 8. Not sure if that is true or not but the ones I get have opened always looked pretty dang good!

I would believe that. Also agree on the grading strategy.

They would surely have metrics they need to hit and capped numbers of 10s.

 

[Dodgydave]

I would believe that. Also agree on the grading strategy.

They would surely have metrics they need to hit and capped numbers of 10s.

Now, if you were to take that conspiracy theory to its logical conclusion then you find the condition of your card is only of moderate importance — yes, if it has been through the washing machine it will always get a low grade but if they have just had a "run" of 10s then your "perfect" card is unlikely to grade as such...

(Please note — I am mainly just doing this in jest. I really don't have strong opinions on grading companies ethics as it is not something that I will ever use. If my cards coming out of packs are only 8s then I am perfectly happy with 8s!).

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

If my cards coming out of packs are only 8s then I am perfectly happy with 8s!).

This is why I am happy to grade all my cards, regardless of their grading. They were my cards! Grew up with them, bought them when I got back into the hobby 15 years ago, and now that I am back again!

I just like what i have and the hope of hitting a big card in a box (it never happens)

 

[Dodgydave]

Interesting read — not that Goldin is going to say anything to reduce the helium in the industry of course.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/investing/baseball-cards-markets/index.html

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Interesting read — not that Goldin is going to say anything to reduce the helium in the industry of course.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/investing/baseball-cards-markets/index.html

Stuff like this leads me to believe they're pumping and dumping at some point. These guys don't get it for the long haul imo.

How they dump is going to be the interesting thing

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

If you are serious about selling you would be selling now. There's really not much else to it. I am not someone who pays any attention to the specifics of the trading card $ market so all the following is basic economics. Take it with a grain of salt if you want.

Has the market peaked? Who knows? What we do know is it is a heck of a lot stronger than it has ever been. Acting like it will continue to run this hot in perpetuity is, maybe not foolish, but certainly not the most likely scenario. (It would be like borrowing to finance a business and stress testing based of today's 2-3% interest rates given the long term average — in NZ — is 6.5%).

Trying to time when the market peaks to sell is a fool's errand. You will only know it has peaked after it has done so. Some people will get it exactly right and that will be much more good luck than good management. All you can really do is look to sell in a rising market (which we have). If you have bought when the market was weaker then you are winning. Don't wait for a falling market because then every other failing investor will be trying to get out what they can as well.

Will the market fall? Again, who knows? It has obviously surged on the back of unprecedented demand created by a global pandemic and never before seen investor interest. Will either of those things continue indefinitely in to the future? The safest bets point to no. Hence, a fall in the market. There is no guarantee of that fall but I would say it is more likely than not. (My business — completely non card/sport related — has experienced a similar surge in demand. This is great, but, I am also not blithely wandering along expecting the exact same scenario to play out in the future.)

The other question to ask is if there is a fall in the market which cards are most likely to be affected? Those are the ones you should look to move (first).

I was going to write a whole lot more but it seems long winded. The short version, I would be more comfortable that guys with established legacies (LeBron, Kobe) and even more importantly not having thousands of new cards produced each year (Jordan) may maintain current values than the current crop of newcomers whose careers have not yet reached the level their prices justify. These guys may justify that price but do you need to wait for them to do it if you can get the return s on your "investment" now.

Now, really to me this is about collecting though. I like my cards — even my non-PC ones! So even if you have a valuable card you don't have to just sell it because it may be less valuable in the future.

"I was going to write a whole lot more". Crickey. Really? Just having fun mate. Always good when someone puts in like that.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I read a post the other day that a guy who had been collecting for a while had some really nice cards that he auctioned off and with that, paid off his house and all his debts and pretty much is set up for life now........ all by selling off a couple of his high end cards.

Now if someone said to me tomorrow, we will take some of your best cards and pay off your Mortgage and leave some extra in the bank for spending....... I'd ask where they want me to deliver them!

I think if you are looking to sell, now would be the time to start thinking about it. One comment that really stood out for me was from Brian Gray (Leaf CEO). He said that while he makes a heap of money on buying cards and reselling them later on......and while most of these have continued to go up in price..... he is never going to be the guy who holds too long....... he may buy a card for $1000 and sells it for $5000.....it may be worth $8000 now but he made a profit on it and and moved on to other stuff that will also make him money.

I think the cards that will take the biggest hit from people selling up and cashing out will be the more recent prizm's and optics etc....... seems a huge amount of these all seem to grade 9 or 10 and the supply is starting to equal out with the demand.

At the last show in Dallas I read that there was almost no interest in base Prizm PSA10's of Zion and Luka at current prices.

Interesting times ahead.

Profit is profit. And as long as it cancels out the losses you will inevitably take on some cards you're winning. I've left heaps of money on the table in the last 2 years but that's easy to say with hindsight. At the time I was happy selling. I'm happy if the profit I make on cards offsets the money I have spent on wax. Paying off mortgages with cards is something I could only dream of.

 

[Dodgydave]

"I was going to write a whole lot more". Crickey. Really? Just having fun mate. Always good when someone puts in like that.

I mean I guess I could have just typed "$ " but figured I might try and elaborate my thoughts!

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Paying off mortgages with cards is something I could only dream of.

You and me both!

I guess if I had kept up with the hobby over the past 30 years, I might have been a chance, but highly unlikely.

 

[Andrew111]

Interesting. Can anyone remember was there a spike in the 90s before the hobby crashed? Did a whole lot of new collectors join and prices go up before it tanked?

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Interesting. Can anyone remember was there a spike in the 90s before the hobby crashed? Did a whole lot of new collectors join and prices go up before it tanked?

I think the sport just died out. Wasn't really a crash, but it started getting real interesting in the mid to late 90s with innovation and reduced output

 

[Jordan_Cards_Fan]

This being one of my all time grail cards on Monday I was offered a price I could not refuse, like @Matt26 was saying about some guy who paid of his house and debts I too am trying to use my cards to pay off my mortgage and be debt free.