General concensus: GU is dead. So what of the hobby?

nenjabin · Jun 1, 2008

I have been keeping up with the recent bumping of the 'GU is Dead' thread, and then happened upon this line of thinking.

The consensus is that Game Used cards are in fact now dead or if not completely, very close to. So that brings me to the question, what of the hobby? If GU is no longer appealling, that leaves a very large gaping hole in the 'Hits' category from boxes and suddenly we're down to patches (much better, but really just glorified GU that will arguably go bust too) and Autographs. This means that the companies are going to have to start mass producing patches the way they do GU cards, as is possibly already occuring (see SP Rookie Threads, some crazy patches are appearing on no numbering cards) to make up for the lack of interest in GU and then next when Patches die in say...5 years? Cause they too are over produced...

Manufactured patches seem to be a temporary fix, but only temporary as they too have likely hit the wall after only a couple of releases....

And then what will they do? Overproduce Autos? This is already happening!

Unfortunately in my eyes it seems that the hobby at least in it's current format might have peaked and is set to hit a trough/recession where companies will have to try and sacrifice sales by making less sets, of lower print runs, with only low print run of GU, Autos and patches for a few years to provide a resurgence of the rarity of getting such a card for a new generation of collectors. I remember in 2001 when I was soooooooo stoked to have pulled a Antoine Walker Warm Up card because I finally had a GU/worn card where the player had actually toughed the piece of material...alas now I stockpile such things of my players with scant disregard...

JZA · Jun 1, 2008

completely agree there ben, good points youve made there. ive been waiting for this hobby/business to hit a recession for a couple pf years now, and it appears likely to happen i think in the next few.

the manufactured patches are a last ditch attempt by UD to get back interest, and while they seem to be popular with some (or extremely popular...MIKE LEE! ) I dont think ppl are going to keep going gaga for them for long. autos are ridiculously overproduced, and GU even more so, to the point that they are almost worthless. lower print runs are the only way to go, to regain some actual value in the products they are pumping out. why does UD/Topps think having many different products is going to increase sales? if they kept it to 4 or 5 good quality products like they used to, i might actually buy a box or 2 like i used to. i stopped doing that when it became noticeable that while the prices were staying the same or even increasing, the quality of the products was diminishing drastically.

nenjabin · Jun 1, 2008

JZA said:
completely agree there ben, good points youve made there. ive been waiting for this hobby/business to hit a recession for a couple pf years now, and it appears likely to happen i think in the next few.

the manufactured patches are a last ditch attempt by UD to get back interest, and while they seem to be popular with some (or extremely popular...MIKE LEE! ) I dont think ppl are going to keep going gaga for them for long. autos are ridiculously overproduced, and GU even more so, to the point that they are almost worthless. lower print runs are the only way to go, to regain some actual value in the products they are pumping out. why does UD/Topps think having many different products is going to increase sales? if they kept it to 4 or 5 good quality products like they used to, i might actually buy a box or 2 like i used to. i stopped doing that when it became noticeable that while the prices were staying the same or even increasing, the quality of the products was diminishing drastically.

Love those 2 points. Totally agree. I have even liked the Manufactured letters (not to Mike's extent!) but I doubt they'd survive past this year because surely the next release, assuming they do the same, is just the same as the previous with a slightly different design, and I can't see even Mike going crazy and buying up all the letters again!

And as for the products, I think limiting to 4 or 5 would work wonders. I might even consider buying a box or 2 as well, and I have never cracked boxes! (only 2 ever) With my player collections starting to dwindle as I'm only going rookie years of Jason Smith, Herbert Hill is likely to have little or nothing next year and Korver is in fewer and fewer products, boxes would be a natural progression, but no way would I buy boxes currently.

Matt26 · Jun 1, 2008

I reckon the next thing UD will do is bring back some of the popular GU sets (Think 97/98) and update them with modern day players.

I think manufactured patches are ok, as long as they are treated as part of the cards design....like holograms/foil stamping etc.

In some ways I would prefer a manufactured patch, there is no doubt about its authenticity and who would bother faking a manufactured patch? Some of the GU cards these days feature pieces of material will little to no proper authentication.

I mean the first Jordan GU stated which game the jersey was worn in.....now you cant even get UD to state that it was worn at all by the player shown on the front of the card.

Time to go back to collecting basics. Bring back card series.....remember sets had a series 1...with the stars and series 2 with the rookies, bench players and traded players?

Cheers
Matt

nenjabin · Jun 1, 2008

Nash13 said:
I reckon the next thing UD will do is bring back some of the popular GU sets (Think 97/98) and update them with modern day players.

I think manufactured patches are ok, as long as they are treated as part of the cards design....like holograms/foil stamping etc.

In some ways I would prefer a manufactured patch, there is no doubt about its authenticity and who would bother faking a manufactured patch? Some of the GU cards these days feature pieces of material will little to no proper authentication.

I mean the first Jordan GU stated which game the jersey was worn in.....now you cant even get UD to state that it was worn at all by the player shown on the front of the card.

Time to go back to collecting basics. Bring back card series.....remember sets had a series 1...with the stars and series 2 with the rookies, bench players and traded players?

Cheers
Matt

Great point. That was great cause everyone in the NBA can flat out play ball, but unless you're a big name or popular in some way, they don;t get the recognition. I'd love a series 1 and 2 theme again cause some of those lesser name players are quite hard to find cards of, autos of, even GU of! They're simply ignored because they won;t sell boxes...Anyone would think that the league only has 50-100 players in it.

Allstar cards inc · Jun 1, 2008

nenjabin said:
Great point. That was great cause everyone in the NBA can flat out play ball, but unless you're a big name or popular in some way, they don;t get the recognition. I'd love a series 1 and 2 theme again cause some of those lesser name players are quite hard to find cards of, autos of, even GU of! They're simply ignored because they won;t sell boxes...Anyone would think that the league only has 50-100 players in it.

The card companies won't do a large set unless it's in a lower-end product. (As they do in NFL and MLB)

Realistically how many collectors collect the base set of a product anymore??
Most people seem to collect a player or a certain insert set so collecting has become much more fragmented.

Unfortunately it's collectors/investors who have "de-valued" the hobby (I won't say ruined just yet)

It upsets me when all I hear from people is "how many hits do I get per box??" Then they are disappointed when they pull 4 GU's and 1-2 autos of no-name players. Even if you do strike a big-name player the card is rarely worth anything significant because of over-supply.

The card companies are only giving people what they want or what people think they want.

Alistair · Jun 1, 2008

I would be far more enthusiastic about GU cards if I knew which game the jersey was worn in!

Whether it was a notable performance from your favourite player, a solid win from your favourite team or a special game that you attended it would be a very nice touch to revive the concept.

ace e · Jun 1, 2008

I love gu's , its the manufactured cards i am not a fan of.
Gu's r the reason i got back into the hobby but also the reason i dont collect new base cards or inserts.

RareAirShoes · Jun 1, 2008

All are interesting points, but i think UD has forced this upon themselves when they first released SP Game-Used (in 01/02 or 02/03 if i recall), a pricey high-end product that continues to get released ever year since in far too-great quantities. Whilst i am not standing up for Topps, they continued to make GU and Auto's at still rather difficult odds, but then again they too released their version of GU version at a similar time, which at least had Home and Away jerseys, but the value of their cards has been directly affected by UD continued and overused use of the ol' GU jersey card.

exzibit3 · Jun 2, 2008

Card companies need to go back to the basics and the mid to late 90s. There's no originality in the designs anymore, so many of them are plain ugly/boring or generic looking. Collectors appreciate a great design...look at some of the most sought after cards in the 90s, precious metal gems, credentials, embossed gold refractors, jambalaya, rubies, super raves...what do they all have in common? All of them have a great DESIGN, no autos, no jersey, no patch, and yet by today's standards, not all that limited. Heaps of other egs: molten metal, SP game film, Flair hot numbers, a cut above...

Reduce jersey cards, they're junk. Reduce sticker autos, the're junk. Reduce base cards, they're junk. Back to the basics.

Here's a concept that I think would work tremendously well. Re-release some of the most popular card sets from the 90s and add a jersey/autos RCs following the previous design theme. Re-invent the definition of the rookie card. Think about it, how about an EX-2000 Kobe Credentials RC which had a Black refractor border, numbered to 300 and Auto'ed with a silver sharpie at the bottom of the card. EX-2000: Reborn. Or the 1996 SPX can be re-printed with an X cut in the middle for a patch, and the Auto on the hologram part...An Allen Iverson, RC patch/auto numbered to 300. Sick.

nenjabin · Jun 2, 2008

RareAirShoes said:
All are interesting points, but i think UD has forced this upon themselves when they first released SP Game-Used (in 01/02 or 02/03 if i recall), a pricey high-end product that continues to get released ever year since in far too-great quantities. Whilst i am not standing up for Topps, they continued to make GU and Auto's at still rather difficult odds, but then again they too released their version of GU version at a similar time, which at least had Home and Away jerseys, but the value of their cards has been directly affected by UD continued and overused use of the ol' GU jersey card.

They fell off the rails there these past 2 years then. Bowman Elevation has a GU card #/199, #/99, #/79, #/59, #/39, #/29, #/19, #/9, 1/1...and they made a single GU swatch, Dual GU swatch and a Triple GU swatch of each...just for 1 player that is 27 GU cards effectively all of the same crappy looking design. Ouch!

adhunt99 · Jun 2, 2008

Alistair said:
I would be far more enthusiastic about GU cards if I knew which game the jersey was worn in!

Whether it was a notable performance from your favourite player, a solid win from your favourite team or a special game that you attended it would be a very nice touch to revive the concept.

Yeah, that sort of detail could save GU cards...

they should also have GU headbands, shoes, ball, ring net, many of which have been done before but they need some variety.

nenjabin · Jun 2, 2008

adhunt99 said:
Yeah, that sort of detail could save GU cards...

they should also have GU headbands, shoes, ball, ring net, many of which have been done before but they need some variety.

I'm liking this thread and it's ideas I think you and Al are spot on with the Game Dated GU being the saviour. And yes, more variety in other memorabilia would be awesome!

buyingstuffformikelee · Jun 2, 2008

JZA said:
the manufactured patches are a last ditch attempt by UD to get back interest, and while they seem to be popular with some (or extremely popular...MIKE LEE! )

nenjabin said:
Love those 2 points. Totally agree. I have even liked the Manufactured letters (not to Mike's extent!) but I doubt they'd survive past this year because surely the next release, assuming they do the same, is just the same as the previous with a slightly different design, and I can't see even Mike going crazy and buying up all the letters again!

I have no idea what you are talking about

In the end, it's all a matter of personal choice, and you can tell from the maildays that are posted on these boards. Everyone of us, chase different things for different reasons. Some sets tickle our fancy, and some just don't do it for us.

And yes, I love my Chronology Letterman's a heap. I think it was an awesome product and I loved the concept for what it was and how it looks when I get a set done (like many others do).
And I agree, I will not go after the "new batch" with any gusto. I'm gonna stick with my original chase until I can not "realistically' complete any more names and my collection calls it a day.

But in the end, I am still a huge fan, and always will be, of game used cards, especially auto'ed ones. This will be my chase for the rest of my time in the hobby, to keep collecting auto'ed game used cards of my fav players.

So for me, the hobby doesn't need to change or adjust anything to keep me it it, as i'm sure auto'ed game used cards will be around for many, many years to come.

oz-antoine · Jun 3, 2008

08/09 will be coming out in a few months and coming off the bench for one of the worst teams in the NBA and only playing half the season I'm doubtful Walker will have any new cards coming out and to be honest it doesn't really bother me. Being a dedicated player collector I try and get everything and anything and all these Finest and Bowman etc parallels are really starting to bore me. Its the same thing year in year out and the only thing that gets me going is a nice looking patch since he hardly has any coming out now. To me the sets from 96-00 were the best and it's a well known fact that tough parallels from this era sell for very high prices because they were original, only had one parallel or so to a set which meant they were very tough to find and most looked awesome! There are alot of European collectors who mainly focus on this stuff as it seems to be the only era holding good value. Cards will never die but the value will and IS.

nenjabin · Aug 25, 2008

Bump for this thread in further light that MJ autos are now selling for cheaper than ever before.

chadjaja · Aug 25, 2008

Box or pack prices dropping anyone??

IF the BIG hit that most wanted now fetches that but boxes sell for more than ever how does that add up???

nenjabin · Aug 25, 2008

chadjaja said:
Box or pack prices dropping anyone??

IF the BIG hit that most wanted now fetches that but boxes sell for more than ever how does that add up???

Hehe but can you see UD dropping their prices? People are gpoing to have to actually stop buying them before that happens, but people are still buying...and then complaining. Instead of complaining and then not buying.

chadjaja · Aug 25, 2008

But you get my point of course. In a perfect world LOL

nenjabin · Aug 25, 2008

chadjaja said:
But you get my point of course. In a perfect world LOL

Yep yep, and definately in the future they're going to have to do it as the player pool of non-overproduced player autos becomes smaller and smaller and so all prices drop. But right now, they're just managing to keep people buying...but surely that will drop off at some point and then they'll be forced to drop prices instead of increase.

It's simply crazy how they get away with selling Exquisite so high, when I'd say the average box would only bring you back 50% of your money. I mean some of the Herbert Hill's and such I have been winning (I know he's a nothing player, but he is in the product!) for $2-$10 on a regular basis...ouch!

General concensus: GU is dead. So what of the hobby?

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