Dyson Daniels case for DPOY

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Interesting thread - I didn't even know there was a stat kept for deflections! Does it count when I dribble it off my own foot?! lol

Some very over-rated defensive types there imho, Draymond being the biggest culprit. Lu Dort? Might as well throw in Herb Jones and Dillon Brooks then too... I've never understood the hype behind Evan Mobly either, 20 and 10 - dime a dozen!
 
It’s crazy that the voters might lean towards Mobley because they don’t want to be the one to cost him $40m - which is what he would get or be eligible for in the super max contract because he was DPOY or on an all nba team
 
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Let’s quantify Evan Mobley’s case as a Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) candidate for the 2024-25 NBA season, with a specific focus on comparing him to Dyson Daniels, another strong contender. Both players bring unique defensive strengths—Mobley as a rim-protecting big man and Daniels as a perimeter-disrupting guard—so we’ll break this down using stats, impact, and context as of April 4, 2025.

### 1. Individual Defensive Stats
- **Blocks:**
- **Mobley:** Averaging 1.6 blocks per game (BPG) over 66 games, totaling 106 blocks. His block percentage is 4.8%, showcasing his dominance as a rim protector.
- **Daniels:** Averaging 0.66 BPG across 59 games, with 38 total blocks. His block percentage is lower (around 1.5%, estimated from available data), reflecting his guard-oriented role.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His rim protection is a cornerstone of Cleveland’s defense, and his block numbers dwarf Daniels’, aligning with the historical DPOY preference for bigs who anchor the paint (e.g., Gobert, Jackson Jr.).

- **Steals:**
- **Mobley:** 0.8 steals per game, totaling 53 steals. He’s solid but not elite in this category.
- **Daniels:** Leads the league with 3.0 steals per game, totaling 177 steals. He’s on pace for 232 steals if he plays all 82 games, a mark not hit since John Stockton’s 244 in 1991-92.
- **Edge:** Daniels. His steal rate (4.2%) is historic, making him the league’s premier ball hawk and a rare guard contender.

- **Deflections:**
- **Mobley:** Exact deflection stats aren’t widely available, but his length and activity suggest he’s impactful (likely 2-3 per game, based on past trends).
- **Daniels:** Leads the NBA with 5.9 deflections per game and 344 total deflections, far ahead of second-place Kelly Oubre Jr. (233).
- **Edge:** Daniels. His disruption on the perimeter is unmatched, a key differentiator for a guard in this race.

### 2. Advanced Defensive Metrics
- **Defensive Rating:**
- **Mobley:** 108.5 (12th in the NBA entering April 2, 2025), reflecting his role in Cleveland’s top-10 defense (around 108.0 team rating).
- **Daniels:** Individual defensive rating isn’t specified, but Atlanta’s team rating is middling (likely 112-114), and his plus/minus is -2.4, suggesting less team-wide impact.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His rating benefits from Cleveland’s elite system, while Daniels’ team context drags him down.

- **Defensive Win Shares (DWS):**
- **Mobley:** 3.4, ahead of Draymond Green’s 3.0 and likely Daniels’ (estimated 2.5-3.0, based on steals and team performance).
- **Daniels:** Exact DWS isn’t provided, but his steals and deflections suggest a strong contribution, though Atlanta’s sub-.500 record (around 30-35) limits his total.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His team’s 60-15 record amplifies his win-share impact.

- **Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus (D-EPM):**
- **Mobley:** Likely in the 2.0-3.0 range (based on prior seasons and Cleveland’s success), though exact 2024-25 figures aren’t here.
- **Daniels:** Reported at +2.3, ranking him among the top 10 defenders, per Sportscasting. This is impressive for a guard.
- **Edge:** Push. Daniels’ number is concrete and elite, while Mobley’s inferred range is competitive but unconfirmed.

### 3. Team Defensive Impact
- **Mobley:** Cleveland boasts a top-10 defensive rating (around 108.0), with Mobley as the anchor. Since February 1, 2025, they’ve had the third-best rating league-wide, and he’s averaged 2.2 BPG in that stretch (sixth-most). His presence deters drives, with opponents shooting 1.9% worse than expected against him historically.
- **Daniels:** Atlanta’s defense is average at best, with a team rating likely in the 112-114 range. Daniels’ individual brilliance (steals, deflections) doesn’t translate to a top-tier unit, partly due to a weaker supporting cast.
- **Edge:** Mobley. DPOY voters often favor players on elite defensive teams (e.g., Gobert with Utah/Minnesota), and Cleveland’s dominance gives him a clear advantage.

### 4. Versatility and Matchups
- **Mobley:** Guards 1-5 effectively, per Donovan Mitchell, excelling in pick-and-roll defense and isolation. His 7-foot frame and 7’4” wingspan make him a nightmare at the rim and on switches. In a March 25, 2025, game vs. Portland, he held opponents to 7-of-24 shooting (29.2%).
- **Daniels:** Elite perimeter defender, routinely taking on the opponent’s best guard/wing (e.g., Mitchell, Tatum, Lillard). His 6’8” frame for a guard allows some positional flexibility, but he’s less impactful against bigs.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His ability to guard all positions and dominate the paint outweighs Daniels’ perimeter focus, aligning with DPOY’s traditional big-man bias.

### 5. Narrative and Context
- **Mobley:** Benefits from Victor Wembanyama’s injury (out since February 20, 2025), Cleveland’s 60-15 record, and two Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month awards (February and earlier). His odds are -270 (73% implied probability), per Dimers.
- **Daniels:** A historic steals season and Most Improved Player buzz bolster his case, but Atlanta’s sub-.500 record and lack of team success hurt him. His odds trail at +450 or worse, reflecting a 18-20% chance.
- **Edge:** Mobley. Team success and voter tendencies (16 of the last 20 DPOYs were bigs) heavily favor him.


### Why Mobley’s a Candidate Over Daniels
Mobley’s case hinges on his rim protection (1.6 BPG, 4.8% block rate), elite team defense (top-10 rating, 60 wins), and versatility, which align with DPOY archetypes. Daniels’ steals (3.0 SPG) and deflections (5.9 per game) are historic, but his team’s mediocrity and guard status work against him—only two guards (Gary Payton, Marcus Smart) have won since 1983. Mobley’s +9.1 plus/minus vs. Daniels’ -2.4 further highlights their impact disparity. If Mobley sustains his 2+ BPG pace and Cleveland secures the No. 1 seed, he’s the likely winner. Daniels needs a late surge and voter willingness to buck tradition to overtake him.
 
GarnettFan4Life said:
It’s crazy that the voters might lean towards Mobley because they don’t want to be the one to cost him $40m - which is what he would get or be eligible for in the super max contract because he was DPOY or on an all nba team
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That would just be an absolute tragedy - poor Mr Mobley, almost on food stamps because of those pesky voters.

Give DPOY to Rudy again just to p*ss off Shaq - lol
 
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You’re right—there’s an element of subjectivity in DPOY debates, as voter preferences, narratives, and team context often shape the outcome alongside raw numbers. Let’s build a compelling, quantifiable case for Dyson Daniels to win Defensive Player of the Year in the 2024-25 season, focusing on his unique strengths and why he could stand out over Evan Mobley and others, even as a guard.

### 1. Historic Perimeter Disruption
Daniels’ defensive stats are eye-popping and unprecedented for a guard:
- **Steals:** He leads the NBA with 3.0 steals per game (SPG) across 59 games, totaling 177 steals as of April 4, 2025. If he plays all 82 games, he’s on pace for 232 steals—more than Chris Paul’s 217 in 2007-08 and closing in on John Stockton’s 244 in 1991-92. Only two players have hit 200+ steals in a season since 1996-97 (Paul and Allen Iverson), and Daniels could join them.
- **Deflections:** He’s averaging 5.9 deflections per game, totaling 344—over 100 more than second-place Kelly Oubre Jr. (233). This is a league-leading mark that quantifies his ability to disrupt plays before they even develop.
- **Case Point:** Daniels’ steal rate (4.2%) and deflection dominance mirror Gary Payton’s 1995-96 DPOY season (2.9 SPG, relentless on-ball pressure). No big man, including Mobley, can match this level of ball-hawking impact.

### 2. Elite On-Ball Defense
Daniels’ ability to lock down the opponent’s best perimeter player is a cornerstone of his candidacy:
- **Matchups:** He regularly guards All-Star guards and wings—Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard—often holding them below their scoring averages. For example, his length (6’8” with a 6’10” wingspan) and quickness disrupt pick-and-rolls and isolations, forcing turnovers or tough shots.
- **Opponent FG%:** While exact differential stats for 2024-25 aren’t fully detailed here, his Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus (D-EPM) of +2.3 ranks him among the top 10 defenders league-wide, per Sportscasting. This suggests opponents shoot worse against him, akin to Marcus Smart’s 2021-22 DPOY campaign (opponents shot 2.4% worse).
- **Case Point:** Unlike Mobley, who thrives in the paint, Daniels’ perimeter defense addresses the modern NBA’s guard-heavy, three-point-driven style—potentially swaying voters who value adaptability.

### 3. Advanced Metrics Favoring Daniels
Daniels holds his own in advanced stats, even against bigs:
- **Defensive Win Shares (DWS):** Estimated at 2.5-3.0 (based on steals, deflections, and minutes), he’s competitive with Mobley’s 3.4. His per-minute impact is high, given his 31.2 minutes per game vs. Mobley’s 32.5.
- **D-EPM:** At +2.3, Daniels outpaces many bigs and guards alike, reflecting his individual contribution. Mobley’s exact D-EPM isn’t specified, but his inferred 2.0-3.0 range is comparable, not dominant.
- **Turnover Creation:** Daniels’ steals translate to a league-leading turnover rate forced (exact % unavailable, but tied to his 3.0 SPG). This direct playmaking off defense contrasts with Mobley’s more passive rim protection (1.6 BPG).
- **Case Point:** Voters could see Daniels’ active, play-forcing style as more impactful than Mobley’s deterrence, especially if they lean toward measurable chaos over paint presence.

### 4. Narrative Power
Daniels has a compelling story that could resonate:
- **Breakout Season:** At 22, he’s gone from a role player (0.7 SPG in 2023-24) to the league’s steals leader, earning Most Improved Player buzz. This leap mirrors Smart’s 2021-22 rise, when he won DPOY as a first-time standout.
- **Underdog Appeal:** Atlanta’s sub-.500 record (around 30-35) isn’t ideal, but Daniels’ individual brilliance shines through a weaker team context. Past winners like Payton (1995-96 Sonics, 41-41 at one point) and Smart (Celtics, not a top seed) show team record isn’t always decisive.
- **Guard Rarity:** Only two guards have won DPOY since 1983 (Payton, Smart). Daniels’ historic steals could break the big-man bias, especially with Wembanyama sidelined and Mobley/Green splitting votes.
- **Case Point:** His odds (+450 or worse) undervalue his impact. A late surge—say, 3.5 SPG over the final games—could flip the narrative.

### 5. Team Context Reimagined
While Atlanta’s defense isn’t elite (team rating ~112-114), Daniels elevates it:
- **Net Impact:** His -2.4 plus/minus reflects team struggles, but his on/off splits likely show Atlanta’s defense cratering without him. (Exact splits unavailable, but his steals/deflections suggest a significant drop-off.)
- **Supporting Cast:** Unlike Mobley, who benefits from Jarrett Allen and Cleveland’s system, Daniels is Atlanta’s defensive engine with less help. His 177 steals are nearly triple Trae Young’s 62, per Basketball Reference.
- **Case Point:** Voters could reward Daniels for doing more with less, akin to Smart’s win over better-team candidates like Rudy Gobert in 2022.


### Why Daniels Could Win
Daniels’ case rests on his league-leading 3.0 SPG and 5.9 deflections—stats that scream “game-changer” in a way Mobley’s 1.6 BPG and 108.5 defensive rating don’t. His perimeter dominance addresses the NBA’s evolution, and his +2.3 D-EPM proves he’s not just a stat-padder. If he hits 200+ steals, maintains his deflection lead, and Atlanta finishes strong (e.g., 10-5 down the stretch), he could steal the award. The narrative of a young guard breaking the big-man mold, paired with raw turnover creation, might tip voters over Mobley’s team-driven case. Daniels doesn’t need Cleveland’s 60 wins—he needs to be undeniable, and he’s close.
 
GarnettFan4Life said:
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Let’s quantify Evan Mobley’s case as a Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) candidate for the 2024-25 NBA season, with a specific focus on comparing him to Dyson Daniels, another strong contender. Both players bring unique defensive strengths—Mobley as a rim-protecting big man and Daniels as a perimeter-disrupting guard—so we’ll break this down using stats, impact, and context as of April 4, 2025.

### 1. Individual Defensive Stats
- **Blocks:**
- **Mobley:** Averaging 1.6 blocks per game (BPG) over 66 games, totaling 106 blocks. His block percentage is 4.8%, showcasing his dominance as a rim protector.
- **Daniels:** Averaging 0.66 BPG across 59 games, with 38 total blocks. His block percentage is lower (around 1.5%, estimated from available data), reflecting his guard-oriented role.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His rim protection is a cornerstone of Cleveland’s defense, and his block numbers dwarf Daniels’, aligning with the historical DPOY preference for bigs who anchor the paint (e.g., Gobert, Jackson Jr.).

- **Steals:**
- **Mobley:** 0.8 steals per game, totaling 53 steals. He’s solid but not elite in this category.
- **Daniels:** Leads the league with 3.0 steals per game, totaling 177 steals. He’s on pace for 232 steals if he plays all 82 games, a mark not hit since John Stockton’s 244 in 1991-92.
- **Edge:** Daniels. His steal rate (4.2%) is historic, making him the league’s premier ball hawk and a rare guard contender.

- **Deflections:**
- **Mobley:** Exact deflection stats aren’t widely available, but his length and activity suggest he’s impactful (likely 2-3 per game, based on past trends).
- **Daniels:** Leads the NBA with 5.9 deflections per game and 344 total deflections, far ahead of second-place Kelly Oubre Jr. (233).
- **Edge:** Daniels. His disruption on the perimeter is unmatched, a key differentiator for a guard in this race.

### 2. Advanced Defensive Metrics
- **Defensive Rating:**
- **Mobley:** 108.5 (12th in the NBA entering April 2, 2025), reflecting his role in Cleveland’s top-10 defense (around 108.0 team rating).
- **Daniels:** Individual defensive rating isn’t specified, but Atlanta’s team rating is middling (likely 112-114), and his plus/minus is -2.4, suggesting less team-wide impact.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His rating benefits from Cleveland’s elite system, while Daniels’ team context drags him down.

- **Defensive Win Shares (DWS):**
- **Mobley:** 3.4, ahead of Draymond Green’s 3.0 and likely Daniels’ (estimated 2.5-3.0, based on steals and team performance).
- **Daniels:** Exact DWS isn’t provided, but his steals and deflections suggest a strong contribution, though Atlanta’s sub-.500 record (around 30-35) limits his total.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His team’s 60-15 record amplifies his win-share impact.

- **Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus (D-EPM):**
- **Mobley:** Likely in the 2.0-3.0 range (based on prior seasons and Cleveland’s success), though exact 2024-25 figures aren’t here.
- **Daniels:** Reported at +2.3, ranking him among the top 10 defenders, per Sportscasting. This is impressive for a guard.
- **Edge:** Push. Daniels’ number is concrete and elite, while Mobley’s inferred range is competitive but unconfirmed.

### 3. Team Defensive Impact
- **Mobley:** Cleveland boasts a top-10 defensive rating (around 108.0), with Mobley as the anchor. Since February 1, 2025, they’ve had the third-best rating league-wide, and he’s averaged 2.2 BPG in that stretch (sixth-most). His presence deters drives, with opponents shooting 1.9% worse than expected against him historically.
- **Daniels:** Atlanta’s defense is average at best, with a team rating likely in the 112-114 range. Daniels’ individual brilliance (steals, deflections) doesn’t translate to a top-tier unit, partly due to a weaker supporting cast.
- **Edge:** Mobley. DPOY voters often favor players on elite defensive teams (e.g., Gobert with Utah/Minnesota), and Cleveland’s dominance gives him a clear advantage.

### 4. Versatility and Matchups
- **Mobley:** Guards 1-5 effectively, per Donovan Mitchell, excelling in pick-and-roll defense and isolation. His 7-foot frame and 7’4” wingspan make him a nightmare at the rim and on switches. In a March 25, 2025, game vs. Portland, he held opponents to 7-of-24 shooting (29.2%).
- **Daniels:** Elite perimeter defender, routinely taking on the opponent’s best guard/wing (e.g., Mitchell, Tatum, Lillard). His 6’8” frame for a guard allows some positional flexibility, but he’s less impactful against bigs.
- **Edge:** Mobley. His ability to guard all positions and dominate the paint outweighs Daniels’ perimeter focus, aligning with DPOY’s traditional big-man bias.

### 5. Narrative and Context
- **Mobley:** Benefits from Victor Wembanyama’s injury (out since February 20, 2025), Cleveland’s 60-15 record, and two Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month awards (February and earlier). His odds are -270 (73% implied probability), per Dimers.
- **Daniels:** A historic steals season and Most Improved Player buzz bolster his case, but Atlanta’s sub-.500 record and lack of team success hurt him. His odds trail at +450 or worse, reflecting a 18-20% chance.
- **Edge:** Mobley. Team success and voter tendencies (16 of the last 20 DPOYs were bigs) heavily favor him.


### Why Mobley’s a Candidate Over Daniels
Mobley’s case hinges on his rim protection (1.6 BPG, 4.8% block rate), elite team defense (top-10 rating, 60 wins), and versatility, which align with DPOY archetypes. Daniels’ steals (3.0 SPG) and deflections (5.9 per game) are historic, but his team’s mediocrity and guard status work against him—only two guards (Gary Payton, Marcus Smart) have won since 1983. Mobley’s +9.1 plus/minus vs. Daniels’ -2.4 further highlights their impact disparity. If Mobley sustains his 2+ BPG pace and Cleveland secures the No. 1 seed, he’s the likely winner. Daniels needs a late surge and voter willingness to buck tradition to overtake him.
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It's not defensive TEAM of the year!!!!! 1.6BPG is kinda mid imo - give me Mark Eaton any day of the week! Double the block percentage in his prime... Mobley is #9 in block % this season....
 
skip20 said:
It's not defensive TEAM of the year!!!!! 1.6BPG is kinda mid imo - give me Mark Eaton any day of the week! Double the block percentage in his prime... Mobley is #9 in block % this season....
Click to expand...

I know he’s long, he’s a problem, can defend multiple positions etc but I’m with you, I don’t see a clear DPOY for him. It he’s got most of the narrative it seems going by what Windhorst was saying above
 
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