Betting/Punting News/Veiws

NBAWHIZ · Oct 16, 2007

Is anyone having a bet at Caulfield on Wednesday? I'm going to put on the following Flexi-Quad;

1st Leg - Race 5
#2 Nips
#3 Rockford Bay
#4 Publishing
#5 Amyjaye Power
#8 Anna's Choice
#9 Count To Zero
#10 Something Anything
#13 Eskaw
#15 Escadaire

2nd Leg - Race 6
#1 Jestatune
#2 Truly Beautiful
#3 El Daana
#6 Riva Sun
#8 Serious Speed
#9 Absolut Glam
#10 Zarita
#12 Arcadia

3rd Leg - Race 7
#3 Blessed
#11 Autumn Jeuney

4th Leg - Race 8
#3 Completion
#10 Danevade
#15 Who's Ya Daddy
#16 Zingara
#18 China Causeway

the Total Cost for this Flexi-Quad is $36 for a 5% share;

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 17, 2007

Id be putting extension of time in race 6! Agreed that autumn jeuney is nearly a one out in that leg. Ill be backing it but might stay away from the quad today. Probably work something around extension of time, el daana & jestatune in the big one!.

(good luck for ya quaddie , hope it pays better than the one i got on sat hahaha)

NBAWHIZ · Oct 17, 2007

dead_end_cruiser said:
Id be putting extension of time in race 6! Agreed that autumn jeuney is nearly a one out in that leg. Ill be backing it but might stay away from the quad today. Probably work something around extension of time, el daana & jestatune in the big one!.

(good luck for ya quaddie , hope it pays better than the one i got on sat hahaha)

Apart from the Quaddie, i might also have a little wager on Serious Speed in the Thousand Guinees at odds of $15.00. But i'll be saving my bigger bets for Caulfield Cup day on Saturday. Hopefully the Fat Quaddies this Saturday pay more than last Saturday's Skinny Quaddie.

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 18, 2007

You should have loaded up!. Looks like youll have a big fat wallet for saturday. Any fancies on saturday?. Im not sure who ill have in the cup, I wont be backing maldivian.

Also i know shoes is gonna hate this...haha...but i got the quinella in the guineas yesterday and also backed antarctic miss for a win but didnt put it in the trif!!!!!!. It paid $5000 (

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 18, 2007

Had a quick look at the cup form. I really really really like maybe better. Ill have a bunch of box trifs as well because it always pays well and like the melbourne cup that 100-1 shot seems to come up for third a lot and they pay a HEAP. Ill be leaving maldivian out of them, i might be shooting myself in the foot but i dont think he'll be in the top 5.

*eagerly awaits nbawhiz hot tips )

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 18, 2007

Hey guys!

Im going in for surgery tomorrow (nothing too serious) so ill be out of action for a few days but ive had a good look through the cup and i think ive got the trifecta. If i dont get it you cant be mad cos im sick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE CUP!!!!!!
3. BLUETIGEROO. I really like this horse, i dont think ive ever backed it but this is his right distance and hes a big place hope. Not convinced he can win but he will be in the mix.

5. MAYBE BETTER . Its hard to fault his form at the moment. Yeah he hasnt been closer then 4 lengths this time in but at 2400 he should be nearing his peak. Not convinced yet that he can win but he will be flying the last 150m into 2nd or 3rd. Not sure what hes paying for the melbourne cup but if its anything over double figures id jump on. This race should smarten him up for that. Having said that i wouldnt bat an eyelid if he won easily.

7. PURPLE MOON. Beware the unknown!. He has to go in on his last start win in ireland in a 400,000+ race. He also drops 5.5kg from that. Might be the blowout we need in the trif!.

8. CINQUE CENTRO. Was dissapointing last start but you have to go on his 3rd behind el segundo the start before and a good run in the memsie before that. He wont win and most likely third is the best he can hope for but i think he can sneak a place at 60-1. But by all means if you want an outsider to back each way , hes your guy.

14. DOURO VALLEY . Really coming around to douro now. Hes my top pick. Beat maldivian start before last and yeah maldivian wasnt at his peak then but neither was this guy. Then ran 4th behind devil moon last start who is FLYING! . Great record at the track and although not won at the distance i think it will suit him. I like him a lot. Each way all day!

16. Eskimo Queen. What can i say i love a mare down in the weights in big cups! (think dane ripper!)(who may have been a filly!...who was also a 3yo...ok shuttup...haha). Shes been solid without out being spectacular in VERY good races this time in. Another one thats each way all day.

Ive left out the fav, hes a great horse but i just cant stand a favourite!, i can see ways of him being beaten and id rather leave him out of the trifecta than leave him in and it cost me more of my hard earned.

Ill just go through another couple of my fancies. As i said earlier this is an early guide and things may change sat morning with weather etc... but ill let you know cos i dont want shoes breathing down my neck saying YEAH NO GOOD AFTER THE RACE YA WANKER!!!!!. Well here it is buddy two days before!!!!!!! hahaha

Ill stay well clear of the first two races at this stage.

RACE 3

1,2,4,7,13 - back the value.

RACE 5

2. VORMISTA. Should win. If hes anything over $3 get the house on. If hes each way odds get a 2nd mortgage and put it on. Should win with even bad luck, with good luck he'll win the length of the straight (well maybe not that far but ya know.....doesnt matter how much they win by......

RACE 6

I think this might be the best betting race of the day. I see 2 LET GO THOMMO AND 4. TESBURY JACK as the two top picks. Base your trifectas around these two and you cant go wrong.

Thats about as far as i got, thanks for reading and hope you can back a winner and hopefully the surgery tomorrow will be a success!. Look forward to ready all your fancies for the cup, even the hack punters out there cos as shoes and nbawhiz would know its those bastard one time puinters who clean up on days like this!!!

Seya guys! Wish me luck!

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 18, 2007

Odds for the cup as of thursday night. Maldivian is SO SHORT!!. STAY AWAY!!!!!

Maldivian 2.5
Eskimo Queen 7
Duoro Valley 10
Maybe Better 10
Master OReilly 12
Scenic Shot 15
Princess Coup 16
Anamato 16
Purple Moon 26
Blutigeroo 26
Blue Monday 35
Mandela 35
Annenkov 41
Tawqeet 41
Cinque Cento 51
Sirmione 81
Black Tom 126
Sarrera (1st Emg) 126
Molotov (2nd Emg) 126
Railings 151

ScottE · Oct 18, 2007

dead_end_cruiser said:
Odds for the cup as of thursday night. Maldivian is SO SHORT!!. STAY AWAY!!!!!

Maldivian 2.5
Eskimo Queen 7
Duoro Valley 10
Maybe Better 10
Master OReilly 12
Scenic Shot 15
Princess Coup 16
Anamato 16
Purple Moon 26
Blutigeroo 26
Blue Monday 35
Mandela 35
Annenkov 41
Tawqeet 41
Cinque Cento 51
Sirmione 81
Black Tom 126
Sarrera (1st Emg) 126
Molotov (2nd Emg) 126
Railings 151

I got on Maldivian 2 weeks ago and he was paying $7 the win and $2.50 the place. Finger's crossed.

NBAWHIZ · Oct 19, 2007

dead_end_cruiser said:
Had a quick look at the cup form. I really really really like maybe better. Ill have a bunch of box trifs as well because it always pays well and like the melbourne cup that 100-1 shot seems to come up for third a lot and they pay a HEAP. Ill be leaving maldivian out of them, i might be shooting myself in the foot but i dont think he'll be in the top 5.

*eagerly awaits nbawhiz hot tips )

Yeah, Maybe Better is racing well and does look a good each-way chance in the Caulfield Cup at 10/1 on Saturday. Maybe Better will be an even better chance in the Melbourne Cup, and there will be No Japenese Horses to trouble him this year. Maldivian and Douro Valley are in good form, but there is some doubt on both of them at the distance, especially in a high pressure 2400m Group 1 Race. Maldivian is well weighted but he is way too short at $2.50 and he has not raced beyond 2040m. Last year Sphenophyta was the raging Caulfield Cup favourite with a light weight, but he over-raced and didn't run out the trip. Having said all that, Maldivian is by Zabeel so it wouldn't suprise me if he came out and did a Might And Power and won by 7 lengths. There is not a lot of depth in this years Caulfield Cup so it wouldn't suprise me if one of the outsiders ran well. This is going to sound crazy, but i actually think that Black Tom at $126.00 could be the smokey. He was well beaten at his last run at Flemington but it was on rain-affected dead ground and he hates any give in the track, and he also drew Gate 1 in that race and the inside going at Flemington was like quick sand. Two starts ago at Caulfield over 2000m he finished just 3 Lengths behind Maldivian and Douro Valley, and he actually beat home Scenic Shot who is a 15/1 chance in the Cup. In Western Australia Black Tom and Scenic Shot are rated equally, so if Scenic Shot is a chance then Black Tom has to be an outside chance. Black Tom is a Stallion so he can be inconsistant and he does have a habit of missing the start, so it wouldn't suprise me if he finished Last in the Caulfield Cup, but if his head is switched on, who knows? He did win a Perth Cup by 6 Lengths. If you can ignore his last start at Flemington, then Black Tom might be worth a couple of bucks each-way at $126.00.

My best bet of the Day is Roman Squire in Race 9. He has a great fininishing burst and as long as the Caulfield track is not leader-biased then he should run well. He could be the stand-out runner in the 3rd Leg of the FAT Quaddie.

lockymac · Oct 19, 2007

The $3.40 Sportingbet.com.au is offering for the Warriors to beat the Spurs at San Antonio in today's pre-season game is fairly generous.
Looks like the Spurs may rest a few:

NBA: Spurs plan to rest stars as Warriors run

Web Posted: 10/17/2007 11:06 PM CDT

Jeff McDonald
San Antonio Express-News

The Spurs have run their wind sprints. They've spent their time on "The Hill." In a little more than two weeks of training camp, they've successfully worked off the love handles wrought from a summer of sitting around on the sofa.

And now they're ready for the ultimate preseason conditioning test.

Bring on Nellie Ball.

Golden State's Don Nelson brings his frantically fast-paced offense to the AT&T Center for a preseason showdown tonight.

Translation: The Spurs are in for quite a workout.

"We know we're going to have to run a lot," guard Manu Ginobili said. "Lots of tough mismatches, lots of shooters. Now that we're trying to get in shape, it's great to play a team like them."

Nelson, in the first season of his second stint in Golden State last season, used his fun-and-gun offense to help the Warriors run to an improbable playoff berth ï¿½" and an even more improbable first-round upset of the Dallas Mavericks.

His scheme uses smaller, faster players to create mismatches by outrunning opponents.

In short, Nellie Ball is sure to prove a hindrance to the best-laid plans of Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who typically likes to use the preseason to slowly round his team into fighting shape.

"It will be interesting for fans, but we're going to ignore it," Popovich said of Golden State's style. "They're going to be playing in first gear, we'll be playing in fourth gear."

The way Spurs players describe it, Golden State's offense is much like the one Greek team Panathinaikos brought to town last week - except on pep pills.

"It will be a lot like the team we just played," guard Brent Barry said. "A lot of pick and roll, and guys scrambling all over the place."

Twenty minutes against the frenetic Warriors can seem like 40 minutes against a slower-paced team. So to save wear and tear on his team full of 30-somethings, Popovich aims to vastly limit the minutes of most of his veterans tonight.

That probably means less Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley, and more Marcus Williams, Ian Mahinmi and the quartet of undrafted reserves.

For the third consecutive game, the Spurs will also be without starting point guard Tony Parker.

Parker participated in full-scale workouts for the first time Tuesday, with an eye toward making his preseason debut Saturday against Detroit.

For one more game, that leaves point guard duties in the hands of Ginobili and, to a lesser extent, Barry.

"We're not going to treat it like a real game," Popovich said. "If we did, it would take us about a week to recover. We'll look at a lot of new guys and make sure we've given them a good look."

If nothing else, the Spurs at least get a good look at a Warriors team Popovich says should be one of the best in the Western Conference this season. And one that ought to improve considerably in its second season under Nelson.

"It's amazing what he got across to them in one season, but that was just one season," said Popovich, who worked under Nelson during Nelson's first stint at Golden State. "A lot of those guys had never even seen the guy before. This year, they will be doing it in a more sophisticated manner."

Nelson, for his part, will probably rest his veterans somewhat as well - especially perpetually hobbled guard Baron Davis, upon whose health the Warriors' hopes rest again this season.

But he isn't likely to dial down the tempo.

The Spurs are looking forward to the test. After which, they will also be looking forward to the rest.

NBAWHIZ · Oct 20, 2007

I've had a closer look at the Caulfield Cup form and i've decided to back both 'Scenic Shot' and 'Princess Coup' at 15/1 in the Caulfield Cup. Both horses have drawn wide which is a real worry so they will need a lot of luck in running. If you take it on face-value then 'Scenic Shots' last-start 2nd in the Turnbull Stakes was awesome and if the race was a little longer he would have beaten Devil Moon. In that race he thrashed Cup horses like Eskimo Queen, Douro Valley, Blue Monday, Cinque Cento, Tawqeet, Bluetigeroo, Molotov, and he actually meets them all better off at the weights. Western Australia horses have had a good recent record in the Cup with Horses such as Northery, Celestial Show, and Rogan Josh all running well. The New Zealend runner 'Princess Coup' looks a great chance also. She flew home to win her last start in NZ over 2040m, and at her only run at 2400m she won the NZ Oaks by over 4 lengths. Princess Coup looks a similar type of horse to the 2001 winner Ethereal.

I had a big win on 'Serious Speed' on Wednesday so i've got a bit of cash to spend at Caulfield tomorrow. Here are the fixed-odds bets that i have placed so far;

$36.00 on Scenic Shot to win at odds of 15/1

$36.00 on Princess Coup to win at odds of 15/1

$6.00 on Black Tom each-way at odds of 133/1

I also like Roman Squire in Race 9 but i'm going to wait to see what price he is on the tote tomorrow before betting.

I'm also going to put on a Flexi-Quad Fat Quaddie that i will post tomorrow afternoon. I'm just going to wait to see how the track is racing, hopefully it is not a leader-biased track.

Good Luck to D_E_C and to anyone having a bet.

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 20, 2007

NBAWHIZ said:
I've had a closer look at the Caulfield Cup form and i've decided to back both 'Scenic Shot' and 'Princess Coup' at 15/1 in the Caulfield Cup. Both horses have drawn wide which is a real worry so they will need a lot of luck in running. If you take it on face-value then 'Scenic Shots' last-start 2nd in the Turnbull Stakes was awesome and if the race was a little longer he would have beaten Devil Moon. In that race he thrashed Cup horses like Eskimo Queen, Douro Valley, Blue Monday, Cinque Cento, Tawqeet, Bluetigeroo, Molotov, and he actually meets them all better off at the weights. Western Australia horses have had a good recent record in the Cup with Horses such as Northery, Celestial Show, and Rogan Josh all running well. The New Zealend runner 'Princess Coup' looks a great chance also. She flew home to win her last start in NZ over 2040m, and at her only run at 2400m she won the NZ Oaks by over 4 lengths. Princess Coup looks a similar type of horse to the 2001 winner Ethereal.

I had a big win on 'Serious Speed' on Wednesday so i've got a bit of cash to spend at Caulfield tomorrow. Here are the fixed-odds bets that i have placed so far;

$36.00 on Scenic Shot to win at odds of 15/1

$36.00 on Princess Coup to win at odds of 15/1

$6.00 on Black Tom each-way at odds of 133/1

I also like Roman Squire in Race 9 but i'm going to wait to see what price he is on the tote tomorrow before betting.

I'm also going to put on a Flexi-Quad Fat Quaddie that i will post tomorrow afternoon. I'm just going to wait to see how the track is racing, hopefully it is not a leader-biased track.

Good Luck to D_E_C and to anyone having a bet.

I like roman squire as well but i do get the feling you wont get more than about $2.70 which is a bit short for me. I wouldnt want to take less than $3.50. Anyway ill post up my tips after the scratchings at about 9am. Good luck.

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 20, 2007

Caulfield Cup

11. Scenic Shot

14. Douro Valley

Also taking a couple of doubles into the Melb Cup

Maybe better/Maybe better #50501 $65

Maldivian/Maybe Better #50801 $17.20 (just in case he is that much better than them and im completely wrong!)

Hey whiz i dunno if you noticed but scenic shot/Maybe better double is $105!.

Because its Caulfield Cup day and im a sadcase ill probably bet on every race haha so heres my tips for the rest of the day.

If i had a gun to my head id probably back burgogne in the first, but most likely staying clear of the first two races.

Race 3

Box Trif 2,4,5,7,10

Race 4

3. Pillar Of Hercules

Race 6

2. Let Go Thommo (best bet)

hads182 · Oct 20, 2007

I'm going to go silly in a flexi quads, and stand 2 horses in the Cup. I think Eskimo is a definate chance... She will be flying home... Just need to decide on the other horse... I'll go about 5 to 6 horses in the other legs...

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 20, 2007

Pillar of Hercules you beauty!!!. thommo would have won by a length or more if he wasnt held up.

NBAWHIZ · Oct 20, 2007

hads182 said:
I'm going to go silly in a flexi quads, and stand 2 horses in the Cup. I think Eskimo is a definate chance... She will be flying home... Just need to decide on the other horse... I'll go about 5 to 6 horses in the other legs...

Yeah, i've put on the following Flexi-Quad;

Race 7 - 1st Leg
2,5,6,10,11,12,13

Race 8 - 2nd Leg
5,6,8,11,14,16,17,18

Race 9 - 3rd Leg
3,10,15

Race 10 - 4th Leg
1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9

Total Cost for this Flexi-Quad is $67.50 for a 5.02% share

dead_end_cruiser · Oct 20, 2007

Still alive mate. Good luck to ya. But everyone that took maldivian would have got oreilly as the sub yeah?. Bloody douro valley , im shattered at that. I could nearly have retired if he won and i dont bet each way so i got nuthin!!!!!!!!!!!. SHITTT. Ahh well i have 70 odd left in the account thanks to hercules so hopefyully ill jag something in the last two so my ass doesnt fall out of my pants!.

Good luck in your quaddie bro, ill write the numbers down and cheer em home!.

NBAWHIZ · Oct 20, 2007

dead_end_cruiser said:
Still alive mate. Good luck to ya. But everyone that took maldivian would have got oreilly as the sub yeah?. Bloody douro valley , im shattered at that. I could nearly have retired if he won and i dont bet each way so i got nuthin!!!!!!!!!!!. SHITTT. Ahh well i have 70 odd left in the account thanks to hercules so hopefyully ill jag something in the last two so my ass doesnt fall out of my pants!.

Good luck in your quaddie bro, ill write the numbers down and cheer em home!.

Yeah, i landed the Quaddie, and with Maldivian and Eskimo scratched Master O'Reilly was the Sub so my Flexi-Quad share was 15.06%. The Quaddie paid $1,094.30 in Victoria which gave me a return of $164.80, so overall it was a break-even day for me. Well done on tipping Hercules and you were unlucky with Duoro and Thommo. Princess Coup finished 3rd in the Cup but i only backed her for the win so i missed out. With Maldivian now ruled out of the spring, next weeks Cox Plate looms as a very open race, and there are probably about 8 winning chances.

hads182 · Oct 20, 2007

Yeah, it was a bit of a shame the Cup. But that's racing I spose. I missed out on the quads risking lord of the dance. That was a brilliant move!
Oh well onto the sport multi's now.
I'm going to start with 1 backing England to win, into all the guns in the Premier league. Also having apiece of my Mariners to beat the kiwis... :v:

NBAWHIZ · Oct 23, 2007

Here is the final field for this Saturdays Cox Plate;

Cox Plate Final Field
MISS FINLAND $3.85
HARADASUN $5.25
DEVIL MOON $5.75
EL SEGUNDO $6.50
EFFICIENT $9.00
MARASCO $13.00
DIVINE MADONNA $15.00
ZIPPING $21.00
ESKIMO QUEEN $28.00
WONDERFUL WORLD $31.00
LAD OF THE MANOR $36.00
NICONERO $36.00
MAGIC CAPE $91.00

Who does everyone think will win the Cox Plate? It looks like a very open race on paper and there are probably about 8 horses that could win without suprising. Because he is great odds, i have put $50.00 on Zipping at odds of $21.00.

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