1X hobby of 2022 Bowman

[Iron Clad Lou]

I'll say 4X if he makes AA by the end of next year. Generally get a 50%( or more) bump when they move up a level if they're young.

Amador base auto was a $25-$30 card when the product released and this went to $100~ when he moved to high A and kept playing well.

I was looking through similar prospects of similar age in A.

Those in 2023 Bowman are like 10x RV's price.

Most hitting .220-.260 too.

Some of them in Rookie ball are going to be pushing 15x.

I might just keep snapping the RVs up whilst i can

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I'm looking forward to the next few weeks. I used to convert my comc cash into BO credit but this time I've got a wishlist of singles. Also prevents comc from taking 10% for converting to BO credit or cash. Taking cash is shocking now. 5% sales comish, 10% commission for converting to cash or BO credit plus listing fees/postage fees. Then paypal takes a cut. And finally the bank screws you converting USD into AUD. It's 25%.

I see a future where 40% commission is the norm on selling platforms like comc and ebay.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I was looking through similar prospects of similar age in A.

Those in 2023 Bowman are like 10x RV's price.

Most hitting .220-.260 too.

Some of them in Rookie ball are going to be pushing 15x.

I might just keep snapping the RVs up whilst i can

Good strategy. I've not paid as much attention as I used to. At one point I knew every prospect in each release, where they were playing and how they were doing. It's very time consuming.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Generally the prices are highest at release but there will always be someone who flies under the radar for whatever reason and their cards will spike at some point after release. Most will go down, though. I remember when 2021 Bowman Chrome came out prospectors were hailing it as the best product in ages. By 2022 and this year most of the touted ones have fallen away heavily and Tovar( who was under the radar at release) has already peaked and is going back to where he started.

Hernandez was a $300USD card at release and it's probably a $50 card now. 2021 Bowman is rough too. Only Amador and Blaze Jordan are left standing. The rest are more or less cooked. It's fun but it's hard. If I had the money I'd buy some 2022 Draft. Holliday is going better than expected. I just can't bring myself to pay $800 for a hobby box when they were going for $300 in 2019.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Generally the prices are highest at release but there will always be someone who flies under the radar for whatever reason and their cards will spike at some point after release. Most will go down, though. I remember when 2021 Bowman Chrome came out prospectors were hailing it as the best product in ages. By 2022 and this year most of the touted ones have fallen away heavily and Tovar( who was under the radar at release) has already peaked and is going back to where he started.

Hernandez was a $300USD card at release and it's probably a $50 card now. 2021 Bowman is rough too. Only Amador and Blaze Jordan are left standing. The rest are more or less cooked. It's fun but it's hard. If I had the money I'd buy some 2022 Draft. Holliday is going better than expected. I just can't bring myself to pay $800 for a hobby box when they were going for $300 in 2019.

Yeah, i have found a couple that I might have a look at once they dip in A.

Anthony Gutierrez and Enmanuel Bonilla.

Regarding 2021, I still praying Luis Rodriquez can turn it around. Praying. Not looking good, as he's still struggling in A.

I couldn't for the life of my pull the trigger on opening 2022 Draft Super Jumbo. Seen brutal cases of it

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

From memory you don't mind sitting on the sealed wax. It's generally a very good move - especially with Draft. Although, I think you'd do well just with the amount of refractors you get plus you have a chance at a Holliday auto which would be huge. Even a Holliday paper 1st goes for close to $10. You'll get a few of those and at least one chrome.

I'd open it myself but I get that if you can sit on it then that's the better move. I could have made the easiest $250 in my life by selling my 2X hobby boxes of 2022 Bowman. I opened them and maybe got $250 back from a $600 outlay - and that's with one of the boxes being decent. It's pretty brutal alright. Hopefully I can wean myself off opening wax. It's a horrible feeling when you get skunked.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

From memory you don't mind sitting on the sealed wax. It's generally a very good move - especially with Draft. Although, I think you'd do well just with the amount of refractors you get plus you have a chance at a Holliday auto which would be huge. Even a Holliday paper 1st goes for close to $10. You'll get a few of those and at least one chrome.

I'd open it myself but I get that if you can sit on it then that's the better move. I could have made the easiest $250 in my life by selling my 2X hobby boxes of 2022 Bowman. I opened them and maybe got $250 back from a $600 outlay - and that's with one of the boxes being decent. It's pretty brutal alright. Hopefully I can wean myself off opening wax. It's a horrible feeling when you get skunked.

Just imagine hitting a Holliday Red Auto out of it. Bloody life changing

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Oh yes. Sell that thing immediately. I wonder though. With all the bs that is being exposed lately there must be a chance that his very low serial numbered stuff is going to go where the manufacturers want it to go. I've lost all trust in the manufacturers. Breakers getting loaded boxes is one thing but being able to identify exactly which box has the super or the red or the orange etc. means us mugs have almost zero chance at ever hitting one.

When your company are producing not just one, but many life changing cards, (with zero external oversight) the temptation for those cards to go to a predetermined destination must be huge. Makes me sick to think about it.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Oh yes. Sell that thing immediately. I wonder though. With all the bs that is being exposed lately there must be a chance that his very low serial numbered stuff is going to go where the manufacturers want it to go. I've lost all trust in the manufacturers. Breakers getting loaded boxes is one thing but being able to identify exactly which box has the super or the red or the orange etc. means us mugs have almost zero chance at ever hitting one.

When your company are producing not just one, but many life changing cards, (with zero external oversight) the temptation for those cards to go to a predetermined destination must be huge. Makes me sick to think about it.

Well i watched a bunch of Layton case breaks and each case was pulling an orange and gold.

Most boxes were 3 base, 1 /499 and 1/ 250.

Same pitchers popping up in each box as the auto.

Real rough to hit big.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

That said, as far as I can see, only 1 Holliday red has sold.

Could be a couple out in the wild

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Unfortunately print runs have gone up significantly so it is much harder to hit colour. Expand the prospect auto checklist is one way but saturating the product with insert autos ensures there will be 2X, 3X, however many X base autos overall.

That format you describe was exactly what I got from a super Jumbo of 2018 Draft from Laytons funny enough. Purple pitcher auto, college bat refractor, and two base pitching autos and another college bat base auto. Thankfully it was a lot cheaper back then but it was a dirty box alright.

My best boxes of Draft were two boxes of 2016 Draft( 3 autos) which I got on sale from BO in Jan 2019. The players have not really panned out but at the time these were nice hits. All 6 autos were hitters. Dylan Carlson Gold wave/ 50, Jake Fraley Blue wave/150, Gavin Lux base. The second box were all base but it was Kirilloff who was a $100USD card back then as he was highly touted, Kyle Lewis, and Potts who was a dud. Also had a box topper in one box.

One of the few occasions where I made money from opening. The Carlson I sold 18 months later for $500USD, Kirilloff for $120~, Lux for $100( sold too early), Lewis $80( way too early), the Fraley for maybe $25 and Potts for $15. Then in 2021 all the chrome of Bo Bichette, Pete Alonso, etc. For a time that was an incredibly hot product. It's slumped now and I'm glad I did not hang onto all the cards. Sure I'd get more than $20AUD for a Bichette refractor but the Carlson has halved.

I paid $220 USD each for the boxes - a steal at the time.

Great memories actually. Love opening Bowman haha. No way could I ever sit on it. It would drive me mad.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

That said, as far as I can see, only 1 Holliday red has sold.

Could be a couple out in the wild

It's in your box mate. Open it....now! lol.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

It's in your box mate. Open it....now! lol.

How's this. You might be able to tell me what i'm missing. Is this the callup from ROK to A?

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

How's this. You might be able to tell me what i'm missing. Is this the callup from ROK to A?

I think I added the caviat "promoted and continues to hit".

This guy was already very underwhelming in the complex league and I'm not sure why they promoted him to A after only 8 games( probably because he cost them 2 million) which looking at these stats yielded absolute crap. Because of his age that card is still $100+. I would not pay $50 for it given his performance. I don't pay attention to the DSL. If a player struggles to hit in the complex league that's a massive red flag - no matter how young they are.

This guy is giving off Cristian Santana vibes from the Detroit Tigers. He also got paid a few million and has put back to back .100 BA in low A. I pulled his Yellow ref auto graded it PSA10 and sold it for way under market for $240AUD during ST. I'm feeling more and more vindicated with that decision each passing game. No decent prospect hits below .200 for any length of time at any level and still turns out ok. Unless there is a drastic reversal in form both might be out of baseball by 2026.

My prediction is that they give him one or two years at this level and unless there is a drastic improvement his career is over by 2025

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I think I added the caviat "promoted and continues to hit".

This guy was already very underwhelming in the complex league and I'm not sure why they promoted him to A after only 8 games( probably because he cost them 2 million) which looking at these stats yielded absolute crap. Because of his age that card is still $100+. I would not pay $50 for it given his performance. I don't pay attention to the DSL. If a player struggles to hit in the complex league that's a massive red flag - no matter how young they are.

This guy is giving off Cristian Santana vibes from the Detroit Tigers. He also got paid a few million and has put back to back .100 BA in low A. I pulled his Yellow ref auto graded it PSA10 and sold it for way under market for $240AUD during ST. I'm feeling more and more vindicated with that decision each passing game. No decent prospect hits below .200 for any length of time at any level and still turns out ok. Unless there is a drastic reversal in form both might be out of baseball by 2026.

My prediction is that they give him one or two years at this level and unless there is a drastic improvement his career is over by 2025

He's 2 months younger than Verdugo, hitting half Verdugo, selling for 2-3x Verdugo.

Amazing

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Ridiculous. Must be the amount he signed for and playing for a team with strong hobby appeal. The Padres have made some strides but they are still only slightly more appealing than Miami which is pretty much the worst team in terms of hobby appeal. Cards are fairly popular. However, he's looking like an absolute dud. Unlike our man.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Ridiculous. Must be the amount he signed for and playing for a team with strong hobby appeal. The Padres have made some strides but they are still only slightly more appealing than Miami which is pretty much the worst team in terms of hobby appeal. Cards are fairly popular. However, he's looking like an absolute dud. Unlike our man.

Added a few more this week for a grand total of...

2 x Orange /25
1 x Gold Shimmer /50
2 x Gold /50
1 x Yellow /75
2 x Green Atomic /99
2 x Green /99
1 x Atomic /100
2 x Blue Mojo /150
1 x Blue /150
4 x Purple /250
1 x Sparkle /299
6 x Refractor /499
5 x Base

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

It's in your box mate. Open it....now! lol.

I did it.

Average.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I did it.

Average.

Its on blowout. have a look.

I will say, it probs could have been a lot worse.

Getting a Invicta auto is always a gut punch

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

RV hitting lead off. Not a stellar game with the 1 hit, BA up .240 but most importantly he's at the top of the lineup. Hope he can stay there. I'll have a peek on BO. Any insert auto sucks. They should be banned.