What’s your guess at first sales of Zion Prizm silver RC?

[Billyhoyle]

It seems 90% of the recent influx of people into the hobby are looking for a quick rip and flip / pump and dump and won't be around after the bubble bursts which can't be far away with most of us being priced out of the market.

Spot on and read some of the last posts here - https://www.ozcardtrader.com.au/threads/where-to-from-here.212668/

this is absolutely what happened to the sneaker collecting hobby, everything can be turned for a quick profit. I agree it's at a real crossroad for the hobby, everything has been monetized and no one breaks boxes or collects for the joy any more.

 

[KaboomCards]

Whoa. That's a little eye opener - 3,388 Silvers. You'd have to think there are conservatively 20 x the amount of graded out there. There's probably 60,000 silvers. I have heard figures of 50,000. Provided the demand is there, and most importantly stays there, it's all good. Just don't kill the golden goose... Panini.

The market is slightly different now, online warehouse storage open to all, investors buying 50-100 cards at a time etc
The market is massive now and big player names will get soaked up if there is only 50,000 in circulation.
US population has grown nearly 100 million people since early 1990's. Now at 330 million people. China hobby collectors is growing massively also.

 

[KaboomCards]

Spot on and read some of the last posts here - https://www.ozcardtrader.com.au/threads/where-to-from-here.212668/

this is absolutely what happened to the sneaker collecting hobby, everything can be turned for a quick profit. I agree it's at a real crossroad for the hobby, everything has been monetized and no one breaks boxes or collects for the joy any more.

Probably what fueled the Bowman X product to disrupt the market also.
Box prices are changing the way people buy, packs sell well now days.

 

[Billyhoyle]

Probably what fueled the Bowman X product to disrupt the market also.
Box prices are changing the way people buy, packs sell well now days.

Absolutely - Bowman X produced by StockX - who already have a huge role in the big market of sneakers and other collectables.

Packs selling well nowadays as they are the prices boxes used to be

 

[warriors_man]

Whoa. That's a little eye opener - 3,388 Silvers. You'd have to think there are conservatively 20 x the amount of graded out there. There's probably 60,000 silvers. I have heard figures of 50,000. Provided the demand is there, and most importantly stays there, it's all good. Just don't kill the golden goose... Panini.

There's not 50,000, there's about 5,000-6,000. Still a whole lot more than year 1 of prizm where there were 180-220

 

[kiwi_in_melb]

I would say the 5000-6000 print run in actual Prizm hobby would be about right. Then there would probably be another 5000 across all the other variations like Retail, Cello, fast break Prizm and whatever name they can slap on the other variations of the same brand

 

[warriors_man]

I would say the 5000-6000 print run in actual Prizm hobby would be about right. Then there would probably be another 5000 across all the other variations like Retail, Cello, fast break Prizm and whatever name they can slap on the other variations of the same brand

Hobby print run is estimated at 1,140, so 5,000 including retail is a good estimation

https://www.sportscardanalytics.com...-19-prizm-basektball-hobby-print-run-analysis

 

[KaboomCards]

Hobby print run is estimated at 1,140, so 5,000 including retail is a good estimation

https://www.sportscardanalytics.com...-19-prizm-basektball-hobby-print-run-analysis

It would be great to know the global market effect on sales, i.e. so many boxes shipped to Aus, China, Japan, Europe etc, I doubt its all sold into America and stays there.

 

[1stBowman]

I haven't looked into Bowman X

Apologies for the slightly off topic rant but...

Personally I feel we are at the peak of another junk wax era already.

There are already so many versions of prizm it doesn't make any sense. Outside of 2 or 3 products a year the hobby couldnt care less about the other 27 or so products that are released. In recent years it's been hard to see a difference in most of those products they could literally be all interchanged with other products and wouldn't look out of place.
We see the same thing every year with one rookie getting hyped and then crashing but it's got out of hand and is driving collectors (myself included) to look at other options to enjoy the hobby or leave altogether.
It seems 90% of the recent influx of people into the hobby are looking for a quick rip and flip / pump and dump and won't be around after the bubble bursts which can't be far away with most of us being priced out of the market.

There's not 50,000, there's about 5,000-6,000. Still a whole lot more than year 1 of prizm where there were 180-220

Are you saying that well over half of the total Silver Prizms have ended up at the graders?

 

[1stBowman]

Apologies for the slightly off topic rant but...

Personally I feel we are at the peak of another junk wax era already.

There are already so many versions of prizm it doesn't make any sense. Outside of 2 or 3 products a year the hobby couldnt care less about the other 27 or so products that are released. In recent years it's been hard to see a difference in most of those products they could literally be all interchanged with other products and wouldn't look out of place.
We see the same thing every year with one rookie getting hyped and then crashing but it's got out of hand and is driving collectors (myself included) to look at other options to enjoy the hobby or leave altogether.
It seems 90% of the recent influx of people into the hobby are looking for a quick rip and flip / pump and dump and won't be around after the bubble bursts which can't be far away with most of us being priced out of the market.

I hope you are wrong about being at the peak of another junk wax era. I wasn't around for the 1st one but I can imagine how pissed off collectors must have been when they realised how over produced their cardboard had been. I'm not sure whether we are in a junk wax era but it is an uneasy feeling knowing that the health of the hobby is in the hands of a few companies whose track record with transparency and honesty has been questionable. We shall see.

Also, I didn't enter this hobby to make money. I spent a small fortune in the 1st year simply because of the excitement of busting wax and maxed out the credit card on multiple occasions. In some ways I'm still in shock how I suddenly became obsessed with this hobby.

I'm mostly focused on putting together master sets but the disgraceful collation of many products( especially Prizm) means you have to spend quite a bit on singles, even after purchasing multiple boxes. That part of it I really dislike - intentionally making it impossible to make a set unless you buy a case or so.

I have started flipping cards as well recently,and that part of the hobby probably doesn't sit well with the likes of some collectors.

I'm trying to recoup some of my money back and I don't feel any sense of shame in doing that. In fact if I were to turn a profit doing it, I'd be pretty stoked. Who wouldn't be?

 

[warriors_man]

I haven't looked into Bowman X



Are you saying that well over half of the total Silver Prizms have ended up at the graders?

Yes, also the grading numbers include re submissions which happens quite regularly

 

[1stBowman]

Yes, also the grading numbers include re submissions which happens quite regularly

Thanks for clarifying that. It seems a very low figure.

 

[warriors_man]

Thanks for clarifying that. It seems a very low figure.

It's very high when you compare to first year silver prizms (approx. 200)

 

[juxedo]

Thats what happens when you only have a single company that has a monopoly over the market. They oversaturate the market to squeeze out every last dime. No competition to keep them in check or drive innovation and creativity.

 

[KB.]

What an ugly design. To me prizm has gone backwards this year.

I like the design but it has more of a select look than a prizm look, so I agree its gone backward since last years design

 

[KaboomCards]

It's very high when you compare to first year silver prizms (approx. 200)

From what I have seen so far (mega, blaster and gravity boxes), there are a lot of vet silvers, so the silver prizm rookie to vet ratio might be low.

 

[ChrisQ]

I like the design but it has more of a select look than a prizm look, so I agree its gone backward since last years design

For some reason (which doesn't make a lot of sense), the design doesn't seem as bad as it does in Prizm Football. Seems to work better iwith Basketball

 

[1stBowman]

Those vortex things or whatever they are( I like airconditioning duct best) is absolutely horrible. It is totally unnecessary and clogs up the card.

Sadly with most things these days each year there must be innovation and change. Do you really need a new Madden game each year when sometimes the version from 5 years ago was the best.

New year, new design. Even if it's worse. Change for change's sake.

 

[1stBowman]

Zion Silver on COMC for $480 US ( bad centering). If he drops to $250 I might be in (Probably only happens if he misses most of the season or has another injury) If he returns soon and plays well the $480 won't be around for very long.

 

[juxedo]

Looks like zion prices are ticking up again in anticipation of his first official game. Hope those that wanted to get some of his cards jumped in during the lows. Was a very obvious time to accumulate. Prizm base hit a low of 30-35. Now I cant even snag anymore at 40 with prices consistently hitting 50.