State of the market!

drobfan8 · Jan 2, 2022

Matt26 said:
EDIT - just saw a box of Immaculate FOTL Busted - rough price $4000 USD for a Hobby Box

The cards were:

Killian Hayes Base #/99
Luke Kennard Jersey #/99
Markelle Fultz 1 Colour Patch #/10
Tony Parker Patch Auto Premium Edition Redemption #/15
Aaron Nesmith Shoe Patch Auto Premium Edition #/25
Isaac Okoro Rookie Introductions Auto #/99

If I had paid $4000+ USD for a box of that I think I would cry for a very long time......

That Tony Parker will bring in $4800 easily.....

drobfan8 · Jan 2, 2022

The money going around is crazy.

People have a lot of equity in their homes and have money to splurge, or feel like they do.

Business is good.

Interest rate rises will come soon and a lot of the fly by nighters will leave. In saying that, the card market in general has never been stronger. Instagram is basically free advertising of the card game, there are more card shops in Australia than since 1998.

Just buy quality.

kiwi_in_melb · Jan 2, 2022

Matt26 said:
EDIT - just saw a box of Immaculate FOTL Busted - rough price $4000 USD for a Hobby Box

The cards were:

Killian Hayes Base #/99
Luke Kennard Jersey #/99
Markelle Fultz 1 Colour Patch #/10
Tony Parker Patch Auto Premium Edition Redemption #/15
Aaron Nesmith Shoe Patch Auto Premium Edition #/25
Isaac Okoro Rookie Introductions Auto #/99

If I had paid $4000+ USD for a box of that I think I would cry for a very long time......

Id have cried if that was a 400 box

Billyhoyle · Jan 9, 2022

For anyone saying the market is dead....

I counter with this. (see the link not picture)
Marcus Camby logoman
Yes it's a logoman
Yes it's a 1/1
No there is no auto
Yes it's Marcus Camby
Yes it's a new product.

The only thing that has gone close attached are 90s inserts.

https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/2020-21...2349624.m46890.l49286&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0

drobfan8 · Jan 9, 2022

Billyhoyle said:
For anyone saying the market is dead....

I counter with this. (see the link not picture)
Marcus Camby logoman
Yes it's a logoman
Yes it's a 1/1
No there is no auto
Yes it's Marcus Camby
Yes it's a new product.

The only thing that has gone close attached are 90s inserts.

https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/2020-21...2349624.m46890.l49286&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0

I've been watching a ton of videos of the shows that have been happening in the US. It's wild.

You only have to look at the money being spend on Goldins and PWCCs auctions right now also.

Add in quality cards of guys like Camby etc.

I've booked to go to 2 cards shows next month in Brissy and Melb.

I can't get Blasters at retail when they hit, things are insane right now.

Will there be casualties? 100% yes. But we tend to overlook that not everyone is in it for the money. Some people just love their sport/player.

Buckle up and hold on.

Andrew111 · Jan 12, 2022

Can we use prices to gauge the market? It only takes 2 clowns to drive up the price of an auction and who knows if they are collectors or flippers. I think there's a lot of gambling going on.. buying to resell at a higher price later. My measure of how strong the market is from the number of genuine collectors wanting to trade, not selling to make a buck.

TAB1980 · Jun 27, 2022

What I'm noticing of late are the following:

1. Sell prices for the most part are coming down.
2. The volume of new listings is decreasing as well as the variety.
3. Sellers creating "Buy It Now" threads either haven't caught on or a clinging to the hope they can still get what they would have 12 months ago.

SharpysSports · Jun 27, 2022

TAB1980 said:
What I'm noticing of late are the following:

1. Sell prices for the most part are coming down.
2. The volume of new listings is decreasing as well as the variety.
3. Sellers creating "Buy It Now" threads either haven't caught on or a clinging to the hope they can still get what they would have 12 months ago.

I agree with with your observations above. I always had the fear that the high Buy It Now prices would remain after the hype died down. I'm also concerned there will be cards that have found their way into part time collectors hands and we'll never see them again.

I think we saw a massive influx of new collectors/investors in the hobby who would be happy collecting anything and everything. This meant you could sell a Lamelo Ball Hoops Base Rookie for $200US on release day. This sharply dropped as more and more became available but new collectors didn't understand the amount of base rookie cards that would eventually be available.

I also think the reason why prices are dropping is a combination of interest rates rising, stock/crypto market dropping and these new collectors are becoming more educated in the hobby and are getting sick of the Hoops/Donruss/Mosaic products and are moving into those rarer higher end product breaks (Flawless / Immaculate / Noir / Impeccable etc).

1980bust · Jun 29, 2022

BUYING
I've been able to pick up some of my most wanted, long-term hold cards at a decent price lately, so that's ok with me. Also been chipping away at some other sets I'm collecting for probably 20-30% off usual prices I reckon.

Other sets I've been working away at for a few years now are still selling for more and more each time.

SELLING
I was selling fairly consistently (on eBay and COMC) up until the inflation news started coming out of the US recently. Since then it's understandably super slow - not even the usual super lowball offers. Although what I've still been selling has been for fairly normal prices, so I dunno.

I never loaded up on graded or raw base cards - but these are clearly taking an absolute mauling everywhere you look.

We all know this time of year is slow regardless for the basketball market, but curious to see if it picks up anywhere close to normal in a couple of months, or stays depressed until sometime when the macro economic factors look a bit brighter.

Billyhoyle · Nov 6, 2022

I posted this in another thread but thought relevant here

Current market (yeah lots of factors but here's a personal experience!)

This card is my old one.

The exact card resold on goldin today

So:
15/1/22 I won in a razz for $1200

2/5/22 I sold on goldin for $840 including fees

6/11/22 It resold on goldin for $330 including fees

ozsportscardcollector · Nov 7, 2022

The market is continuing to drop. It feels like there is some panic selling now. Clearly folks are struggling to pay the bills in real life so things like cards are first cab off the rank when trying to free up some coin but I suspect there are also those who are fearful that it may drop further and just want something back for their investment - either locking in some profit or cutting their losses.

I thought the market may have hit a floor 6 months ago but it's continued to drop in the last six months. I doesn't matter that much to me. My favourite thing was breaking wax and even if the prices came down a lot the print runs have gone up so much that it would still be a waste of money at half the price - talking mostly NBA and NFL wax here. And here's the main issue with wax. If we went back to where wax did have value( 2019) all the investors would scoop it up in a minute.

All I can say is that I was very fortunate to be in the hobby for a few years prior to 2020. Those were good times. And I imagine those who were in it well before then had an absolute ball.

1980bust · Nov 7, 2022

I'm still buying, but less because of the exchange rate. I'm still selling slightly less. But agreed - prices are dropping overall, and especially on cards that have nothing rare, unique, or special about them. And long-backlogged PSA returns continue to flood the market with junk that will never move now. That said, the drop on the "blue chip" stuff in the tens, or hundreds, of thousands of dollars has been brutal.

I've been saying this would happen since the pandemic 'grade everything' frenzy, so it's not surprising to me. Cards are such an illiquid 'asset' that speculating on them is a far larger gamble than with stocks, for example. I'm primarily a collector, so I guess I've been less exposed trying to gamble with cards.

Since the pandemic boom I've been offloading as many cards as I could that I didn't think I'd be able to sell fairly quickly. My total collection is just over 200 cards now, and I'd still be confident in moving almost all of these quickly at the moment if I decided to consolidate into something bigger. But I'm waiting to see what happens over the next few months before committing to something big like that

We're also now in the lead-up to Christmas, so the market will slow down even more like it always does at this time. But bigger than that are all the macro factors we're all aware of and - like most people - for me, these are far more concerning than the perceived value of some cardboard dropping on paper.

SharpysSports · Nov 7, 2022

The market is dropping because of a number of factors.

1. Interest rates going up everywhere.
2. Cost of living going up.
3. Xmas around the corner.
4. Investors leaving the hobby because the return isn't there anymore.
5. Collectors leaving because investors ruined the fun for them...
6. + other reasons individual hobbyists have

There is still plenty of people in this hobby and it's not going to fall over, it's just going through a rebalancing exercise.

Iron Clad Lou · Nov 7, 2022

I am still selling cheap cards. That's my focus now. Just get rid of my parallels and bulk lots of retail stuff

Grading what i like and just going to hold all my stuff.

GarnettFan4Life · Nov 7, 2022

Iron Clad Lou said:
I am still selling cheap cards. That's my focus now. Just get rid of my parallels and bulk lots of retail stuff

Grading what i like and just going to hold all my stuff.

Same here

TAB1980 · Nov 7, 2022

SharpysSports said:
The market is dropping because of a number of factors.

1. Interest rates going up everywhere.
2. Cost of living going up.
3. Xmas around the corner.
4. Investors leaving the hobby because the return isn't there anymore.
5. Collectors leaving because investors ruined the fun for them...
6. + other reasons individual hobbyists have

There is still plenty of people in this hobby and it's not going to fall over, it's just going through a rebalancing exercise.

Now, if we can just get rid of the group breaker's, we'll be sweet!

Iron Clad Lou · Nov 7, 2022

GarnettFan4Life said:
Same here

I have been selling a few here and a few there on Ebay. nothing major, but good to move a couple. Every time i sell one, i throw find 10 base cards and send them with it.

I notice the NFL groups are selling a bit, so i need to focus getting rid of that stuff now it looks brighter

ozsportscardcollector · Nov 7, 2022

1980bust said:
I'm still buying, but less because of the exchange rate. I'm still selling slightly less. But agreed - prices are dropping overall, and especially on cards that have nothing rare, unique, or special about them. And long-backlogged PSA returns continue to flood the market with junk that will never move now. That said, the drop on the "blue chip" stuff in the tens, or hundreds, of thousands of dollars has been brutal.

I've been saying this would happen since the pandemic 'grade everything' frenzy, so it's not surprising to me. Cards are such an illiquid 'asset' that speculating on them is a far larger gamble than with stocks, for example. I'm primarily a collector, so I guess I've been less exposed trying to gamble with cards.

Since the pandemic boom I've been offloading as many cards as I could that I didn't think I'd be able to sell fairly quickly. My total collection is just over 200 cards now, and I'd still be confident in moving almost all of these quickly at the moment if I decided to consolidate into something bigger. But I'm waiting to see what happens over the next few months before committing to something big like that

We're also now in the lead-up to Christmas, so the market will slow down even more like it always does at this time. But bigger than that are all the macro factors we're all aware of and - like most people - for me, these are far more concerning than the perceived value of some cardboard dropping on paper.

Well said.

ozsportscardcollector · Nov 7, 2022

TAB1980 said:
Now, if we can just get rid of the group breaker's, we'll be sweet!

They have their place but there are too many of them imo.

Iron Clad Lou · Nov 7, 2022

ozsportscardcollector said:
They have their place but there are too many of them imo.

Not in Aus. Need a proper competitor to Cherry

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