We can look back in history and easily project the direction of the hobby. Can also apply learnings from other industries and economies to help predict hobby direction.
What do you guys think of the current state?
We cannot generalise the whole hobby into a single basket. There are markets within markets and they all move somewhat independently.
Modern cards are headed into junk wax 90s era. So far supply is meeting demand but we can easily have a demand shock where investors leave the market creating an oversupply = junk wax era. There is a silver lining. Even with the 90s junk wax collapse there were gems that emerged - pmg, star rubies, mj, kobe, rare desirable inserts, etc. Gems will appear within modern cards even if it all implodes.
Pre-panini can be looked at as another separate market. They have different drivers and consumers. Supply is capped and kids that grew up within that era are now coming into the workforce or moving up the rat race and amassing more disposable income. And enough time has passed so that cards that were destined to go to zero have gone to zero. Outlook looks very rosy for cards in demand from that market.
Jordan is another seperate market and I am ultra bullish. Same with Lebron.
There is an ultra high end market which is the playground of millionaires. Those that play here are not retail. They are smart money, instituitional, HNW, accredited and they know how finance works. Am very bullish on this market sector.
Markets within markets. Understand the market you are playing in.
Will prices stay the way they are?
Again, markets within markets. Economics is driven by supply and demand. And this has been proven with past era cards and players. Superstars will continue to increase in value as long as supply is constrained. This means MJ, Lebron, Kobe autos now after hiss passing (may he RIP), Wilt autos, vintage, etc. Supply is constraint due to different factors. Yes even through recessions. Demand will always be there to drive prices higher.
From 90s era we have learnt that rc cards creates a perceived supply constraint. RCs of stars and superstars maintain and grow in value.
We have also learnt value is determined by demand. When demand is not present it becomes a race to zero.
A lot of new members (time, MJ doco, no sports) - will they stay?
Of course not. Some will stay but most will leave. Once bitten twice shy. All the noobs coming in are retail. They chase the money and are always behind the curve ball. Retail are always the causes of bubbles. Every bubble throughout history has popped and in all instances retail get burnt then leave in droves leaving a much smaller core participation base. Why should it be different this time around.
What can we do to improve the hobby?
I learnt early on that it is a waste of energy trying to influence change. Too many participants, too much pulling and pushing go 8ing on, and that life is short. It is much easier to understand the game, the rules and how best to navigate and play to your advantage.
Some of my thoughts.
Apologies for the long read and bad grammer. Difficult writing so much on a phone.
