Newbie question

bradt82 · Dec 31, 2019

Probably on all listings to be honest.

Sellers selling through auction with very low starting prices. If auction doesn't reach their set price the bot kicks in with 3-4 seconds to go and "buys" the item - seller cancels sale and goes again.

Pretty frustrating.

1stBowman · Dec 31, 2019

Delly said:
I'm sure someone with the time could write a thesis on this.

Long term - Multi championship winning stars. (I'm interested to see what Curry does over the next few years)

Short term - Flip a coin, pick a player, roll the dice, go to the casino, cross you fingers that you picked good. Then sell at the right time.

Best option - Treat this as a hobby. Pick a player you like from you favorite team and collect the cards you want. If you luck out (ie Giannis) then congratulations, but if you don't (like most people) then it has more personal feels to it and you will enjoy the collecting side rather than the lost value.

I wish someone would write a lengthy piece on the investment side of the hobby. I'd love to read someone's perspective on how they see things at the moment and what the hobby might look like in 5, 10, 20, etc. years time.

I'd have a crack but with 2 years experience( albeit fully immersed in it) I don't think it would count for much. I will say with baseball I know which cards to stay well away from and which ones to target - but so do 90% of investors. Basketball is different in so many ways I'd only be comfortable with the blue chip stock like Jordan, LeBron and maybe certain vintage basketball cards.

Investing in cards is way more interesting and exciting than the stockmarket.

sgt_pepper · Dec 31, 2019

1stBowman said:
Investing in cards is way more interesting and exciting than the stockmarket.

if losing money excites you i guess...

TheCardExperience · Dec 31, 2019

sgt_pepper said:
if losing money excites you i guess...

Luka investors disagree

juxedo · Dec 31, 2019

luluNTraed said:
Luka investors disagree

Still too early to call Luka cards an investment

Delly · Dec 31, 2019

1stBowman said:
I wish someone would write a lengthy piece on the investment side of the hobby. I'd love to read someone's perspective on how they see things at the moment and what the hobby might look like in 5, 10, 20, etc. years time.

I'd have a crack but with 2 years experience( albeit fully immersed in it) I don't think it would count for much. I will say with baseball I know which cards to stay well away from and which ones to target - but so do 90% of investors. Basketball is different in so many ways I'd only be comfortable with the blue chip stock like Jordan, LeBron and maybe certain vintage basketball cards.

Investing in cards is way more interesting and exciting than the stockmarket.

There is a couple of threads on blowout with some good information.
I think the general consensus is vintage and generational stars is good for investment. I think the main issue is the term investment, to me that means long term gains. What most people do in the cardboard world is speculating.
There are plenty of stories of people with big sums put on players that are now basically worthless.
This is also why the guys who have been around a while and seen all this hold back on guys like Luka. Amazing talent, getting worldwide fame but without dem rings this is a short term. Someone else will probably pop up in a few years and do the same thing.
Anyway too many beers makes me chatty, happy new year!

TheCardExperience · Dec 31, 2019

Michael Carter Williams was a beast in his rookie year, I wonder how those investments went.

It's worked out great for me, I didn't collect then but I did play NBA Fantasy and MCW won me a chip so now I can pick up a nice Rookie piece to remind me

juxedo · Dec 31, 2019

1stBowman said:
I'd only be comfortable with the blue chip stock like Jordan, LeBron and maybe certain vintage basketball cards.

Investing in cards is way more interesting and exciting than the stockmarket.

Be very careful baseing investment decisions on this viewpoint. Investing is very very easy. It basically comes down to supply vs demand. Supply for mj and lebron are constrained since upperdeck holds sole contracts over these 2 players. Once UD get an NBA license again they will mass print mj and lebron cards like no tomorrow. Prices will tank. We are already seeing it in other players - iverson, kg, etc.

1stBowman · Jan 1, 2020

juxedo said:
Be very careful baseing investment decisions on this viewpoint. Investing is very very easy. It basically comes down to supply vs demand. Supply for mj and lebron are constrained since upperdeck holds sole contracts over these 2 players. Once UD get an NBA license again they will mass print mj and lebron cards like no tomorrow. Prices will tank. We are already seeing it in other players - iverson, kg, etc.

I think 86-87 fleer Jordan will hold value no matter how many new cards are made of him.

As I said I'd be very reluctant to put serious money into cards as an investment long term.

1stBowman · Jan 1, 2020

sgt_pepper said:
if losing money excites you i guess...

Just short/medium term baseball prospects for me.

sgt_pepper · Jan 1, 2020

1stBowman said:
Just short/medium term baseball prospects for me.

short term does get a few more prospects, but still incredibly hard to predict. basically comes down to luck really. altho im not up on the trends in baseball cards so im really only talking b-ball.
but you might aswell 'invest' in some sports betting then. would offer higher yield with less risk i think.

1stBowman · Jan 2, 2020

I am a thoroughly 'degenerate' sports bettor. I invest in the MLB World Series, the Stanley Cup, The NFL Super Bowl, AFL/NRL Premiers. And that's it. I try to ensure a 10% loss is the floor; a 50%-100% profit is nice and anything over that is awesome.

I'm speculating in cards using a pretty narrow criterion and hopefully most of the really bad losses are behind me.

Wouldn't touch Zion ( and to a lesser degree Doncic at current prices) at the moment. Super risky imo.

1stBowman · Jan 2, 2020

Also, I think there is something to be said for the "omen" approach. Purchase Troy Brown Jr. ( Kawhi and Greek Freak also went 15 in the Draft) Absolute hot spot. Can't go wrong.

Luka Doncic = Luka Samanic. Sure fire bet.

sgt_pepper · Jan 2, 2020

1stBowman said:
Also, I think there is something to be said for the "omen" approach. Purchase Troy Brown Jr. ( Kawhi and Greek Freak also went 15 in the Draft) Absolute hot spot. Can't go wrong.

Luka Doncic = Luka Samanic. Sure fire bet.

its the picking of the players thats the tough part. you can look back now and say; 'these players are sure fire bank', but at the time (before the price rockets) it wasnt so obvious.
the time to invest in luka has passed. there may be another window somewhere down the line if he remains as hot as he is, but even then its no sure thing. look at all the top HoF players whose cards just cant maintain value...and the flash in the pans like blake griffin. i havent been keeping tabs on him in years. how are his prices these days? or who couldve seen 'linsanity' coming?

1stBowman · Jan 2, 2020

sgt_pepper said:
its the picking of the players thats the tough part. you can look back now and say; 'these players are sure fire bank', but at the time (before the price rockets) it wasnt so obvious.
the time to invest in luka has passed. there may be another window somewhere down the line if he remains as hot as he is, but even then its no sure thing. look at all the top HoF players whose cards just cant maintain value...and the flash in the pans like blake griffin. i havent been keeping tabs on him in years. how are his prices these days? or who couldve seen 'linsanity' coming?

Linsanity and Griffin are before my time. In hindsight $25 AUD ( his prices before the start of this season) for a Luka Prizm was worth a shot for a ROY aged 19.

If I do have a little crack at basketball prospecting( all half decent cards I have are from boxes, though) just as in baseball I'm going to have to look at a certain type of player. I could be wrong but it feels like a Centre is the least desirable rookie to invest in

SydneyOrient · Jan 2, 2020

juxedo said:
Be very careful baseing investment decisions on this viewpoint. Investing is very very easy. It basically comes down to supply vs demand. Supply for mj and lebron are constrained since upperdeck holds sole contracts over these 2 players. Once UD get an NBA license again they will mass print mj and lebron cards like no tomorrow. Prices will tank. We are already seeing it in other players - iverson, kg, etc.

I imagine cards like rookie cards would still hold vaule regardless of how many mass production cards they bring out If they get there licence back?

Billyhoyle · Jan 2, 2020

These guys are worth watching /listening too - View: https://youtu.be/3nLSYjXHCMI

Billyhoyle · Jan 2, 2020

https://howtocollectcards.com/

1stBowman · Jan 2, 2020

Billyhoyle said:
https://howtocollectcards.com/

Thanks for those links. That statement has above has some issues.

" Collect Football cards profitably". NFL cards are the worst type of investment anyone could make. Only QB's are worth having a crack at. Running backs are hobby poison never mind D, WR, TE. Saquon Barkley's prices will only go one way( down) as will Christian McCaffrey's and they are both elite RB prospects.

The best bet in NFL is to buy a box or 2( a case if you have the funds) and hope to hit something nice or, be shrewd enough to instantly recognise Mahomes/Lamar( you will have approx. a 2/3 game window before prices are out of hand). Mahomes looks fantastic and might be a genuine long term hold. Lamar is a short/medium play imo as he is one run away from being killed. If he does manage to look after himself he could be right up there with Mahomes. If both those boys win rings or multiple rings they may even eventually surpass Brady prices because they are so much more exciting to watch - even compared to when Brady was in his prime.

Mahomes and Lamar are the only two you would seriously look at. Almost everyone else feels crazy from an investment point of view.

Just collect NFL cards for fun.

1stBowman · Jan 2, 2020

Billyhoyle said:
These guys are worth watching /listening too - View: https://youtu.be/3nLSYjXHCMI

Only 10 minutes in and loving it. Those boys know what they're doing. Great link Billyhoyle.

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