How much has the cost of the hobby increased?

justdabestcards said:

I'd say less than 5% of 'vintage' cards have been graded, so potentially in someone's garage or warehouse is sitting 100's or 1000's of raw 'vintage' cards that could potentially pull good grades. But like you say they are hard to find, as I estimate upto 60-75%(of production) of old cards are damaged or have been destroyed. I'm sure there are people with boxes/packs that will slowly come out over time and I'm sure there are many GEM vintage cards still hidden out there and untouched. It's a bit different with the newer stuff.

Not knocking old cards, I think they're great and am just stating the facts. I have a couple of complete 50 card sets of John Player & Sons Cricket cards from the 1930's featuring Don Bradman, the invincibles and some poms. All in mint condition and really like them.

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Just sorry but you are way off there with your estimates. There is no way there is 1000's that are raw that will get high grades mate. Those two comments show you are out of your depth arguing about these points. That and the fact that even pack fresh raw cards dont' grade well due to printing flaws and even then time and gum etc take their toll on even pack fresh cards.

One GEM 57 topps card in 49 years. Says it all really. Better off arguing abou the modern stuff as you don't know much about vintage based on those statements mate

The last box of 57 topps to show up on the market at a card show thru a collector was in 1985 and its was half full. Do you even know about that Tyler find a few years ago and the grades achieved?

And your estimates are based on??

And no warehouses of cards as they weren't distributed like that ;-)

GEM vintage rarely happens.

Digging a hole mate.

Ok, sorry forgot you know it all Chad and I know nothing Let's make it a good thing and you can help me with a few questions I have

As with EVERYTHING, there is the odd exception. Of your ONE example from 1957, how many cards were produced and how many have been graded? How many do you have? Can you/anyone give ACCURATE production runs of vintage cards?? Also do you have all the complete sets or just celtic team sets? Do you collect anything other than basketball?

wait for it...

here it comes....

Well you just put out all those figures and quotes about vintage that have been proven to be completely wrong.

No one knows the actual print run for say 57 topps but there has been just under 6000 graded by psa alone. It was topps first set so the print run would have been quite low and a lot of the sheets were destroyed with printing errors. Only one uncut sheet exists and its all ripped up for the most part. With the other grading companies and the number of raw cards in PCs and the market there can't be many more out there undiscovered. You obviously have some misconceptions about how vintage is graded and the problems associated with it.

There was less than 2,000 sets of 48 Bowman made and they are a much better made set and easier to grade. So there can't be much more of the 57 topps around. In fact there are even less 57 topps than 48 bowman. Most top raw examples bought show up later on graded thats why they command the premium they do. Its all speculation on the grade and windfall they may bring in.

I'm one Celts short the 10 card team set as I want a psa 7 version of Ramseys RC but I'm just under half way thru the complete set.

And I do know more on the subject so why beat around the bush. I've been consulting with beckett mag for years and talk to some of the biggest vintage collectors in the world. Just wish I had their budget. I'll hold back the truth next time.

I think the value of cards dropping now compared to how it has in the past will drop. With cards numbered out of 10 and 25 going so cheap now, but what happens in 5 years time when they're nearly all in collections. Where as in the past they were produced in the thousands and still relatively easy to find. I find the hardest cards to find are any pre 2000 numbered cards Im missing and when they come up the sell for quite a bit!

I spend alot more than I use to but thats mainly because of age. I think if I had the same income 10 years ago I would have spent more then.

Back on topic. Thank you.

Back to topic

chadjaja® said:

Well you just put out all those figures and quotes about vintage that have been proven to be completely wrong.
And I do know more on the subject so why beat around the bush. I've been consulting with beckett mag for years and talk to some of the biggest vintage collectors in the world. Just wish I had their budget. I'll hold back the truth next time.

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Never said I knew more about vintage NBA Chad, i've never really been that interested in it. Read what I wrote carefully too, as you mention the two landmark classic sets in NBA card collecting history and I never brought them up. BTW How have I been "Proven" wrong? Often you speak as if the only vintage cards ever made have been PSA graded and that is not the case. You didn't or couldn't answer my questions either [-X

I didn't want to argue mate, but I'll be blunt - the fact is no one really knows the production runs of MOST of the old cards so there is no way to know how many were really made/ out there for CERTAIN. But you can speculate
This is due to many factors including the length of time passed, the hobby evolution and poorer production control/policies by today's standards.

I already stated the production run of the 57 topps is less than 2000 sets. Some cards appear twice on the sheet, some once and one card four times.

Based on raw sales and the amount of collections around and then psa, gai, bvg and other graded ones the chances of heaps of them sitting around is next to slim or not at all possible.

We don't know the exact figure out there but can only guestimate based on the info above.

Some sets like the 69 topps set were produced in larger numbers. I don't rate any other mainstream sets apart from 48 bowman, 57 topps and 61 fleer as good investment buys. The rest were mostly produced in large numbers.

Just not always in top condition so the condition sensitive issue comes up with cards straight off the press.

If you are going to ask anyone then me and another 10 guys in the hobby would be the ones to ask for basketball. I fielded two phone call from beckett last week with questions on vintage etc.

chadjaja® said:

I already stated the production run of the 57 topps is less than 2000 sets.

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Before I read on. I believe you said 48 set. How solid are these figures you have? Really? "Because it was in beckett"?

The production run of the Bowman was 2000 sets. The 57 set is even rarer therefore less than 2000 sets. And cards weren't in pack form for the most part with 80% plus in vending machines.

These figures are from other vintage experts that together give beckett its info like Jeff, Rob and me etc. Beckett itself knows jack shit about vintage.

chadjaja® said:

I already stated the production run of the 57 topps is less than 2000 sets. Some cards appear twice on the sheet, some once and one card four times.

Based on raw sales and the amount of collections around and then psa, gai, bvg and other graded ones the chances of heaps of them sitting around is next to slim or not at all possible.

We don't know the exact figure out there but can only guestimate based on the info above.

Some sets like the 69 topps set were produced in larger numbers. I don't rate any other mainstream sets apart from 48 bowman, 57 topps and 61 fleer as good investment buys. The rest were mostly produced in large numbers.

Just not always in top condition so the condition sensitive issue comes up with cards straight off the press.

If you are going to ask anyone then me and another 10 guys in the hobby would be the ones to ask for basketball. I fielded two phone call from beckett last week with questions on vintage etc.

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I never mentioned those 3 famous sets at all, did I? So now you agree most of the other stuff was mass produced. WAS I THAT FAR OFF TO BEGIN WITH?" [-X

Chad - You may know MANY MANY collectors and of MANY MANY collectors, but trust me mate - there are MANY MANY collectors/people who 'own' cards that you DON'T know. Don't be so vain

So with your collection, you must have completed the 3 worthwhile vintage sets?

that said regardless mate, I agree you are the man to talk to. props to you on your NBA vintage know how and cards in general

Im just telling it as it is Just. Whats wrong with that?

I'm asked to contribute to articles and provide information for the magazines and hobby. Why shouldn't I make such a statement?

To collect vintage you need to network to find and trade cards so the user group is a lot smaller and well known to each other. Especially in the graded and higher end. You need to think in the vintage world and stop applying the same rules from the modern collecting habbits.

I disagreed with your statement abuot GEMs out there. Regardless of production the higher graded side is very small.

I'm off to bed and its pointless arguing it seems.

chadjaja® said:

Im just telling it as it is Just. Whats wrong with that?

its pointless arguing it seems.

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Ditto Chad.

You were pretty quick to say I was totally wrong and don't think you have 'proved' me wrong but just said you did anyway.

Didn't even answer my simple questions. [-X G'nite mate!

Cant goto bed before 50,000 posts

I think expectations have changed. I think cheap cards are still pretty much cheap cards. Except in the mid 90s I was buying 90/91 Hoops for 50 cents a packet and a kid these days would spend $1.95 minimum right? For me buying a pack for $3.00 was big money...

These days I don't like buying anything more than $3.95 a pack and that includes AFL....

Prefer to buy boxes, but I like opening packs so if I see some i buy some.

In the end I hvae very little faith in the cards holding their valueunless they be of true stars of the game and rare. So I really can only collect because I intend to pass the cards onto the next generation otherwise there is no justification for me to collect what I do. They just don't hold any value with this global market fed by ebay.

Nothing wrong with that, because now everyone can afford a 1/1 - if they don't mind owning a Mike Sweetney LMAO

I was contemplating selling some of my cards just 30 minutes ago, but would it be worth ti? Doubt it. I'm better off just keeping them to enjoy them.

Card collecting may not be more expensive or cheaper these days compared to 10 years ago. But it is a lot more accessible. With ebay and sites like this it is a hell of a lot easier to get what you want, regardless of the price!!!

In saying that because of these factors the price of "regular" (ie. commons, jersey, patch and some auto) cards are extremely cheap.

Well said DVS.

BTW I'll take a win too Chaddles

Well your assumtions about cards still to surface is all based on speculation. Most of which have been proven to be not true based on the last 50 years of cards. Fact of the matter is over the last 20 years of the modern era of collecting VERRY little of high grade vintage has surfaced. Due to the nature of the carboard vintage cards are printed on they would have to be stored at a decent humidity, stored well in blocks of cards and no movement etc. Ive seen lots stored with rubber bands and taped into books etc. The norm before ultra pro showed us how. The tall boys and oversized 76 topps set are especially conditon sensitive due to the size and trouble storing. Most collectors that didn't value the card enough to have them out or sell them wouldn't take the precautions needed. THEN you have to deal with the fact that most are flawed examples of cards even in NrMt condition. I'm a vintage collector and just starting to upgrade most of my stuff. I collect for the enjoyment and not future worth. That said I still want my key cards in the best condition I can get them. That and with all the raw examples that get worse, damaged or lost to the hobby every year I doubt I'll lose out on them anyway.

Also even though some of the 70's sets were produced in larger quantities they were very large in size with over 200-300 in each one. Making collating sets very hard and even harder now especially in decent condition or graded form such as psa 8 and above.

Over the years Ive seen less and less deceased estates with cards let alone sealed boxes of even the mass produced 70's sets. Even if a few boxes show up that wont be enough to flood the market with cards and influence the price of cards or graded cards to much if any degree. A box woudn't even yeild a complete set for most topps releases.

There may only be one psa 10 Havlicek RC for now but if a second popped up it would sell for only a small amount less than the first one did simply due to competiton from collectors and set collectors.

Any specific questions I haven't addressed? I'll try to answer them but ulike cards with numbering like today I can only go by experiance and what has surfaced and sold in the past. Thats the only way we can unfortunately.

A good example is in the modern era. Only recently did BGS grade a Jordan RC a 10 and its a card found in abundance. No shortage of supply there. And even though the 86 fleer set has issues it pails in comparison to most of the fleer and topps vintage sets. Add to the fact the Jordan is the most graded card that BGS get as well.

Took years for the first case of unopened boxes to surface and I don't think thats made much of difference to the price of 86 fleer commons, graded cards, box or pack price yet or ever will. One case is simply not enough.