Future of the hobby

[Billyhoyle]

Where to from here?
Seems a lot of the covid bubble has burst.
Prices are definitely still higher than pre-covid though.
Panini on the way out
The great hope zion/ja on the way out

 

[Billyhoyle]

Couple of posts to consider from hobby accounts

 

[Billyhoyle]

 

[Billyhoyle]

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Still too high for me.

Fully expect prices to drop for a couple more years. Sadly boxes won't match the drop

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

The bubble was a fun ride but dayum I don’t miss paying those prices for singles or boxes ! I wouldn’t mind a bit more of a drop so o can finish my PC chase even a bit more reasonably priced!

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

The bubble was a fun ride but dayum I don’t miss paying those prices for singles or boxes ! I wouldn’t mind a bit more of a drop so o can finish my PC chase even a bit more reasonably priced!

I seriously regret not collecting through my early 20s/30s. I imagine what I would have sold in the bubs

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Has to be the Herbert purely for the fact it sold for close to 2 million dollars. I knew he was hot there for a while - he was featured in the PSA magazine where a Herbert collector said it was the best rookie season he'd ever seen from a QB - but not that hot. That card if sold today wouldn't fetch 200K probably less. Unbelievable the amount of money that got thrown around at the top end.

 

[1980bust]

1. Most grading companies fold through lack of demand. PSA scales back operations because submitting millions of base cards isn't financially viable anymore.
2. The price difference between graded and raw closes up a lot for cards that are plentiful
3. Hopefully a focus on quality over quantity, inserts over parallels
4. Set collecting > rainbows

 

[skip20]

I haven't added a decent Bird or Big O PC card for a looong time....I don't think fanatics will make things much better either! Prices will contineu to drop as the hobby reverts to the more hardcore hobbyists and the speculative investment money drops out of the market at the top end.

For those that might be interested, PSA collector doing a whole run on youtube about top tier cards which have fallen drastically in value. Influencers seem to have disappeared or changed their tune.

https://www.youtube.com/@PSACOLLECTOR/videos

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Just wish box prices would also drop. Sadly won't happen with breakers

 

[Billyhoyle]

Whats everyone's take on the current card market? Seems to be "down" according to a lot of folks. Is it still in decline, and what is the driving factor? What will it take for a rebound and when?

 

[OutlawNinja]

I haven't added a decent Bird or Big O PC card for a looong time....I don't think fanatics will make things much better either! Prices will continue to drop as the hobby reverts to the more hardcore hobbyists and the speculative investment money drops out of the market at the top end.

For those that might be interested, PSA collector doing a whole run on youtube about top tier cards which have fallen drastically in value. Influencers seem to have disappeared or changed their tune.

https://www.youtube.com/@PSACOLLECTOR/videos

I am in the same boat, have not added a Wilkins of any description to the PC in many years.
Pricing is absolutely ludicrous and like the housing market, totally unsustainable.
Box prices will end up killing the market, when it becomes about recouping your cost value, instead of the excitement of what might lie within. That is when the game truly changed.
Bring back the old days of forking out $2.50 for a pack

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Whats everyone's take on the current card market? Seems to be "down" according to a lot of folks. Is it still in decline, and what is the driving factor? What will it take for a rebound and when?

Well down. Everywhere, except Baseball where things are doing ok-ish.

Need NBA and NFL in season for a little sugar hit boost

 

[1980bust]

Whats everyone's take on the current card market? Seems to be "down" according to a lot of folks. Is it still in decline, and what is the driving factor? What will it take for a rebound and when?

This is buy time. Aside from Christmas Day itself, the offseason is the best chance to pick up deals.

Add in that everything is far cheaper than it was even 12 months ago, PC building is great right now.

As for a rebound, I just can't see the endless amount of junk slabs coming back from here. The rare stuff maybe, over time though.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Whats everyone's take on the current card market? Seems to be "down" according to a lot of folks. Is it still in decline, and what is the driving factor? What will it take for a rebound and when?

Stagnant imo.

I do see a small rebound in singles of desirable HOF type players. However, I can't see that outstripping inflation for the foreseeable future. You'd probably be better off buying BTC than Jordan, Mantle, Brady, etc.

I agree with Lou that baseball is the healthiest. And it should be as it has the biggest pool of relevant players( having Shohei doesn't hurt either). Soccer has the potential to be the biggest in that sense but that is decades away imo. Right now, like everything else, they are printing it to death relative to demand.

The main driving factor in the market being flat imo is an uncertain economic outlook and people getting smarter about what they are buying. Overprinting and way too much breaking is going to ensure stagnation for many years.

There is something amiss when modern singles are dirt cheap relative to the cost of a box. That tells you that breaking is propping up wax prices. It will be interesting to see how Fanatics deals with breaking. You could have a whole discussion just on that topic.

What needs to happen for the market to rebound? Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop, China has to democratise, or at the very least become less authoritarian and less threatening... and of course Geoff Wilson needs to go.

 

[Hornso]

Stagnant imo.

I do see a small rebound in singles of desirable HOF type players. However, I can't see that outstripping inflation for the foreseeable future. You'd probably be better off buying BTC than Jordan, Mantle, Brady, etc.

I agree with Lou that baseball is the healthiest. And it should be as it has the biggest pool of relevant players( having Shohei doesn't hurt either). Soccer has the potential to be the biggest in that sense but that is decades away imo. Right now, like everything else, they are printing it to death relative to demand.

The main driving factor in the market being flat imo is an uncertain economic outlook and people getting smarter about what they are buying. Overprinting and way too much breaking is going to ensure stagnation for many years.

There is something amiss when modern singles are dirt cheap relative to the cost of a box. That tells you that breaking is propping up wax prices. It will be interesting to see how Fanatics deals with breaking. You could have a whole discussion just on that topic.

What needs to happen for the market to rebound? Russia/Ukraine war needs to stop, China has to democratise, or at the very least become less authoritarian and less threatening... and of course Geoff Wilson needs to go.

View: https://youtu.be/ABaZg0OeuDI

 

[Hornso]

Are basketball collectors/investors, biding their time and trying to save cash for the Wemby releases?

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Are basketball collectors/investors, biding their time and trying to save cash for the Wemby releases?

Wemby boxes will be interesting.

 

[1980bust]

Are basketball collectors/investors, biding their time and trying to save cash for the Wemby releases?

Hell no. There's no way I'm jumping into that frenzy.
While everyone's looking at Wemby, I'm looking at PC pickups