A Value Question

ooneil · Aug 30, 2011

Discussion Question.

Why do 2011 Champions Star Signatures sell for $80 plus while you can pick up a 2011 Strike Top Prospect card for $30-$40?

As an example i saw a Daniel Mortimer Star Sig (600 produced) sell for $90 last week and also then saw a Keiran Foran TP (300 produced) sell for $55.

Now the insert ratio for a Star Sig was 1:144 and the ratio for TP's is 1:36 which may go some way to explaining it however as collectors we all know that the less there is of something the "rarer" and thus potentially more valued it should be.

Im interested to see what people think.

Trephinator · Aug 30, 2011

That's a strange one - particularly as Mortimer's first grade future is cloudy at best!

I don't know if there is any logic to this - In total there are 4,800 Top Prospects vs 4,800 Star Signatures : in that respect they are equally "scarce"

Maybe it is that there are a lot more TPs around at the moment as the product is new so easier to get hold of - I had at least 15 Merrin auctions go by before I got one at a price I was happy with.

Diggaz TC · Aug 30, 2011

Yep, i sold a Mortimer and Beau Champion on eBay last week that went for $99 each. The first thought is that maybe the Top Prospects are flooding the market at the moment due to the recent release. However, the Star Signatures have been selling at the $70+ mark from Day 1.

batboy · Aug 30, 2011

They aren't as equally scarce as there are 16 Different TP's
And only 8 SS....
There are 600!! ...
They have been overpriced FROM DAY DOT...
I have no idea why, You can get a 2001 FF for half the price, When there is half the amount produced and you would think they
would be harder to get, Being older and all???
But if you go to Get a Heighington SS on the Bay.... You won't find one!! But there will 5 Ayshford TP???
It makes no sense... All i can assume is the First 2011 release was MASS produced and didn't take off....
Now the strike is out, Is not likely to....
Maybe that is why Strike is so expensive..... Maybe Select are trying to re-coup??

Trephinator · Aug 30, 2011

batboy said:
They aren't as equally scarce as there are 16 Different TP's
And only 8 SS....
There are 600!! ...

There are the exact same number of Top Prospect Cards as Star Signature Cards in 2011
16 Top Prospects x 300 of each card = 4,800
8 Star Signatures x 600 of each card = 4,800

maybe a lot of the Star Sigs are sitting unsold at Australia Post or have been returned by newsagents

batboy · Aug 30, 2011

Yeah... I can count!! My point is there are far more of each player...
There is half as many SS as TP's... Each collector isn't gonna buy double the amount??
In my opinion they should be worth less?? Call me crazy...
DO YOU SEE THE LOGIC HERE???
My guess is most collectors would have ALL the TP's... Totalling 16:4800 / Collector
If they were to do the same with the SS they would have 8:4800 / Collector
Having twice the amount, Makes them half as hard to find....
Therefore worth HALF as much!!
I'm hardly a mathematician.... But it makes perfect sense to me!!
What doesn't make sense is they seem to be 5 times harder to find and worth twice as much??
Which i believe is also the boggle with the OP

ooneil · Aug 30, 2011

Digeze said:
Yep, i sold a Mortimer and Beau Champion on eBay last week that went for $99 each. The first thought is that maybe the Top Prospects are flooding the market at the moment due to the recent release. However, the Star Signatures have been selling at the $70+ mark from Day 1.

I saw a Billy Slater go for $100 a few weeks ago. There are only 570 of them. Mortimer is playing park footy and Slater is one of the best players in the game.

ch0pzta · Aug 30, 2011

Ive been wondering the same thing, and came to the following conclusion:

Top Prospects are found one per box, Star Sigs are one per 4 boxes, so despite the fact there are the same total number of cards in circulation, the Star Sigs are much harder to find.

There are obviously a HEAP more Champions cards in circulation than there are Strike, meaning the sigs are more thinly distributed.

You arent paying for the rarity of the card, you are paying for the difficulty in finding.

Trephinator · Aug 30, 2011

You're right - ultimately it's just what people will be willing to pay.

The numbers are interesting though - if you open 32 boxes of Champions you will get 1 of a particular Star Sig (and a lot of Mascot Gems ). 32 boxes of Strike will get you 2 of a particular TP.

Overall production run of Champions is a lot higher (4 x Strike), but sell for a bit over half the price.

thenamesgould · Aug 30, 2011

ch0pzta said:
Ive been wondering the same thing, and came to the following conclusion:

Top Prospects are found one per box, Star Sigs are one per 4 boxes, so despite the fact there are the same total number of cards in circulation, the Star Sigs are much harder to find.

There are obviously a HEAP more Champions cards in circulation than there are Strike, meaning the sigs are more thinly distributed.

You arent paying for the rarity of the card, you are paying for the difficulty in finding.

Exactly. Other points to consider:

The Champions sigs are GENERALLY of higher profile players (Mortimer still owns Likiliki).

A lot of the Champions sigs will have gone to kids and more casual collectors. Pretty much all the future forces go to collectors and thus eBay.

GiRDS- · Aug 30, 2011

thenamesgould said:
The Champions sigs are GENERALLY of higher profile players (Mortimer still owns Likiliki).

ill have to agree with this ... michael gordon being the worlds best player and all.

batboy · Aug 30, 2011

GiRDS- said:
ill have to agree with this and michael gordon being the worlds best player and all.

....To run out for the Tigers next year!!

Diggaz TC · Aug 30, 2011

batboy said:
....To run out for the Tigers next year!!

That would be awesome....if he can stay on the field for a whole season.

ooneil · Aug 30, 2011

Some interesting answers there guys. Having studied Economics at Uni here is my thinking on things.

Firstly in every market there are price makers (sellers) and price takers (buyers). I think this is a case that price makers have purely based this price on the insert ratio in the boxes and for whatever reason the market is being irrational and has accepted that price.

However, we all know here that long term values of cards are based on rarity and names. At some stage the market will come back into line on these cards and price them appropriately. I might take 5 years but at some stage you are going to be able to pick these up for $30 - $40 which in my opinion is what they are worth.

GiRDS- · Aug 30, 2011

this is years been his first major injury ... hes contracted for next season maybe the next season after that if your lucky.

ooneil · Aug 30, 2011

thenamesgould said:
The Champions sigs are GENERALLY of higher profile players (Mortimer still owns Likiliki).

At least Likiliki is in first grade at the moment so maybe not for long James

mischap123 · Aug 30, 2011

I'm not sure about this either. Perhaps pricing is likely to be based on a ratio of how much you spend. ie 1 per box Vs 1 per 4 boxes, even if there is the same amount of the sig cards in circulation

Diggaz TC · Aug 30, 2011

ooneil said:
Some interesting answers there guys. Having studied Economics at Uni here is my thinking on things.

Firstly in every market there are price makers (sellers) and price takers (buyers). I think this is a case that price makers have purely based this price on the insert ratio in the boxes and for whatever reason the market is being irrational and has accepted that price.

However, we all know here that long term values of cards are based on rarity and names. At some stage the market will come back into line on these cards and price them appropriately. I might take 5 years but at some stage you are going to be able to pick these up for $30 - $40 which in my opinion is what they are worth.

Sellers are making that price based on recouping costs. If the price of the SS Cards go down to $30 then the price that Select is putting on the product is way overvalued. A case delivered is approx $970. If Sellers are getting $30 for a SS ($90 a case) do you really think there is $880 worth of value left in the case (Rookies, Mascots and Sensations?). So it is really Select setting the price for the case and the fact that 2011 Champions only avgs 7 inserts per box that the sellers have valued the cards at the prices they are currently selling for.

batboy · Aug 30, 2011

They're thieves and i long for the day thier Monopoly on the market draws to a close

ooneil · Aug 30, 2011

Digeze said:
Sellers are making that price based on recouping costs. If the price of the SS Cards go down to $30 then the price that Select is putting on the product is way overvalued. A case delivered is approx $970. If Sellers are getting $30 for a SS ($90 a case) do you really think there is $880 worth of value left in the case (Rookies, Mascots and Sensations?). So it is really Select setting the price for the case and the fact that 2011 Champions only avgs 7 inserts per box that the sellers have valued the cards at the prices they are currently selling for.

I think its probably that Select are overpricing them and sellers are setting those prices to recoup costs.

If you recall the 2010 Champions series - sellers took and absolute hammering on that series. Look at those stupid Diamond phenomenon gem cards. they were $80 when they come out - 18 months later they are $40.

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