When Saturday 29 September 2:30PM
Where Melbourne Cricket Ground
Toyota AFL Grand Final
Head to head: Geelong eight wins, Port Adelaide eight wins, one draw.
Last time: Port Adelaide 16.10 (106) d Geelong 15.11 (101), round 21, 2007, at Skilled Stadium.
SUMMARY
Ask anyone who follows football and more than likely, they’ll tell you it’s the year of the Cat – they’re the minor premiers, they’ve qualified for the grand final in straight sets, they’ve got a new Brownlow Medallist and NAB Rising Star in their ranks, nine All-Australians, the Coaches’ Association Coach of the Year and even saw their VFL side win their premiership. They’ve also lost just one game since the end of April.
But that’s where the parade of perfection starts to go a little bit awry.
The only team to have beaten the Cats after round five is their grand final opponent, Port Adelaide. With the knowledge that they can unlock the Cats, and after watching their rivals endure arguably the most bruising final of 2007, the Power will be licking their lips at the prospect of stealing the premiership. Remember, outside of a four-game losing streak from round eight, Port have lost just three games all year.
Predictions late in the season seemed to favour a walk-up win for Geelong, regardless of the opposition, but after they struggled to put away Collingwood last week – contrasting with Port’s bulldozing win over Kangaroos – the match-up looks increasingly even.
Geelong will head into the match as deserving favourites, and it would be impossible to think the Cats will be blown away. They’ll be in the contest until time-on in the last quarter. That doesn’t seem to be in dispute, but we shouldn’t underestimate the Power, either. If things go to plan for the neutral spectator, we could see a finale equal to those we’ve witnessed over the past two amazing years.
MEDICAL ROOM
CATS
Matthew Egan (foot) - doubtful
Stephen Owen (knee) - season
Joel Reynolds (knee) – season
Steve Johnson (shoulder) – available
Cameron Mooney (bruised back) - available
Darren Milburn (corked calf) – available
Johnson, Mooney and Milburn are all likely to be nursed this week during training in the hope of giving them a full week to recover from the minor injuries they each picked up last Friday night. Whilst all three are expected to play, Egan isn’t quite the same chance of being there. He’s locked in a desperate race against time to prove his fitness this week, but it looms as an uphill battle.
POWER
Nathan Batsanis (groin) – season
Alex Lee (shoulder) – season
Hugh Minson (foot) – season
Michael Wilson (Achilles) - season
Damon White (knee) – test
Warren Tredrea (knee) – available
Brett Ebert (general soreness) – available
Steve Salopek (general soreness) – available
The heartbreaking story of Michael Wilson and his wretched run with injury over the past decade continues at the most inopportune time. He’s definitely out, but Tredrea, Ebert and Salopek will be given plenty of attention at Alberton this week to get them right for the Saturday.
STRENGTHS
CATS – In defence, midfield and attack this year, Geelong has looked strong, damaging and potent respectively. It’s a team of great balance and great stories, too. Who would have thought Brad Ottens, Steve Johnson, David Wojinski, James Bartel, Cam Mooney and James Kelly would turn their form around simultaneously after serious questions were asked of each of them at the end of 2006? They have, and they’re committed and focussed on winning. They have a strength of unity that goes beyond Gary Ablett’s determination, beyond Matthew Scarlett’s doggedness and beyond Paul Chapman’s finishing ability. Above and beyond the individuals, that collective character is a vital ingredient in every premiership team.
POWER – What Port Adelaide has in its favour has been a core staple of its best football all year. Last week we touched on how the Power’s pace could slice through the Kangaroos, and that’s exactly what happened. It would be foolish to say they’ll be able to do the same thing to the Cats, but there’s so much speed at Mark Williams’ disposal that the vast expanses of the MCG should suit the interstaters to a tee. Also, let’s not forget that many of Port’s players played in a premiership in 2004, and will take the events of the big day in their stride. Can the same be said of Geelong, which has the hopes of a town - and an entire state - riding on its shoulders?
WEAKNESSES
CATS – There are no physical holes in this team – they’ve proven that – but funny things happen in September. “Don’t mention the ‘c’ word†has been the catch-cry on Corio Bay in the second half of the year. The Cats gave Greg Norman and Jana Novotna a run for their money in the choking stakes during the late eighties and early nineties, and while today’s team is entirely different from those finals’ failures, it would be naïve to suggest the handbag tag has been wiped from the Geelong mentality completely. Clutching at straws? Just remember, it took Collingwood decades to shed the wobbles.
POWER – One of Port’s strengths is experience, with many players having been in a premiership winning team just three years ago. However, they’ve also got their fair share of players who haven’t been on this stage. Many of the wise old heads of 2004 – think Wanganeen, James, Bishop, Carr, Dew, Kingsley, Mahoney, Schofield, Pickett, Hardwick and Montgomery – are long gone. This side is much greener, and whilst they are clearly packed with talent and potential, are they still a few years away from hitting their peak?
AT SELECTION
CATS – With Matthew Egan almost certain to miss, Geelong is most likely to go in with an unchanged team from the side which sneaked through against the Magpies. The big talking point during the week will be whether the Cats opt to promote Steven King in place of Mark Blake for the second-ruck role. Blake’s form has tapered slightly, while King has been getting through the VFL trouble free in recent weeks, and he played well in the VFL Grand Final last week. Will it be enough to see him promoted? With the ominous Lade-Brogan combination staring them down, the switch looks likely.
POWER – There’s not too many selection problems for the Power, and they can look forward to picking another virtually injury-free team. The only major question surrounds who will come in for Wilson, and who can best fill the spiritual and physical void left by his absence. Brad Symes, Nick Lower, Alipate Carlisle, Matt Thomas, Greg Bentley, Nathan Lonie and Robbie Gray have all been bandied about as replacements, and while Thomas has been anointed by many as Wilson’s successor when the 1997 Rising Star eventually leaves the game, the more experienced Symes and Lonie loom as the most likely replacements. Nick Lower’s 45-possesion game in a SANFL reserves final last week will give Port’s selectors something to think about as well.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Jimmy Bartel v Kane Cornes
He might be the new Brownlow Medallist, but don’t expect Jimmy Bartel to be given any favours by the Power midfield on Saturday. Bartel has enjoyed a sparkling year, but he certainly looked quite nervous – even slightly rattled – on Monday night as he accepted the medal. Will Kane Cornes be getting in his ear and doing everything he can to eclipse Bartel? You betcha.
Tom Harley v Warren Tredrea
A few years ago, this would have been the marquee clash of the day. However, both players have slowed down considerably since the lofty heights they achieved in the mid-2000s. What makes it such a critical battle, however, is that if either player can stand up and expose the other – either Tredrea at centre half-forward or Harley at centre half-back – then a rare weak link could be found and a sizable advantage gained in a crucial part of the ground.
Brad Ottens v Brendan Lade
Two of the best ruckmen in the game will go head-to-head in what should be a classic big-man battle. They offer contrasting styles in the way they approach the game, however. Lade is your classical giant ruck, a modern day John Nicholls with an on-field presence to match the Carlton legend. Ottens is more of a mobile, crafty type who loves to get forward. With both in good form, whoever can win the ruck duel around the ground will give their midfield a major boost.
THE COACHES
CATS – Mark Thompson
Regardless of the pros and cons of Mark Thompson’s coaching ability, his job in turning around the fortunes of both himself and his club has been nothing short of remarkable in the past 12 months. Like Dean Laidley, Thompson has never previously been regarded as a tactical doyen, but his willingness to go back to the basics and “own†the corridor has been a highlight of Geelong’s free-flowing style. Here’s another question to ponder on Saturday night: if he wins a flag, having completed his mission, does a red and black future loom for “Bomber�
POWER – Mark Williams
“We exist to win premierships†is the ethos of the Port Adelaide Football Club, a club with a connection so strong to the Williams’ family that it makes the Rose family and Collingwood seem like distant relations. That’s perhaps a little extreme, but Mark Williams has been raised in a culture designed entirely around Port Adelaide winning things. His coaching style is reflected in this; he is an emotional and passionate coach, and he rides every moment. Whilst Thompson is a cool and collected character in the box, Williams is a fiery sort, and while his rival on Saturday has adopted the quick-and-direct by foot approach this season, Williams tends to ask his running players to carry the ball, keep possession and apply pressure football when not holding the footy. If the players can execute his plan, “Choco†will know he’s close to adding another flag to the Alberton cabinet.
GAMEBREAKER
CATS – Steve Johnson
He’s gone from being banished from the senior Geelong team and rejected by other teams at trade week to becoming one of the most prized commodities in the Cats’ line-up. Once just an unreliable contributor, Johnson is now unpredictable and elusive – for his opponent. An All-Australian year has capped off a remarkable turn around in fortunes for the freakish Cat, and Thompson will be asking him to step up and work hand-in-hand with Cameron Mooney in stretching the defence of the South Australians.
POWER – Chad Cornes
The epitome of the modern footballer, Cornes is capable of playing in just about every position and causing equal amounts of damage in each. Whilst he is likely to start in defence, expect Darryl Wakelin to be sent to Cam Mooney, allowing Cornes the freedom to run free early and spark his team. If a Geelong forward starts to heat up, watch for the Port coaching box to move Cornes straight there. Conversely, if things aren’t happening up forward, he looms as the perfect swingman to pinch-hit around goal.
THE MOMENT
In every grand final, without fail, there’s a moment or period that becomes game-changing or match defining. Sometimes it’s an act of brilliance – like Peter Matera’s third quarter in 1992, or Leo Barry’s last-gasp, “you star†brilliance of 2005. Other times, it can be a mistake which turns the tide. Rhys Shaw’s fumbles in 2003 won’t be forgotten, nor Stan Alves’ refusal to shift Jamie Shanahan off Darren Jarman in 1997. Des Tuddenham has nightmares about the paddock he didn’t run into in 1966. Sometimes, players emerge from nowhere to become heroes. Ted Hopkins, Bob Keddie, Shane Ellen and maybe even Port’s Toby Thurstans fit the mould.
In later years, the third quarter has been renamed the premiership quarter, and with good reason. If a team is trailing at half-time in a grand final, it needs to make its move as quickly as possible after the main break, or it tends to fall away. Port made that very move wonderfully in 2004; Brisbane did it in 2001, Adelaide did it in both 1997 and 1998, as did the Kangaroos in 1996 and West Coast in 1992. Watch this 30-minute stretch extra closely to see if and when the momentum starts to turn.
X-FACTOR
Daniel Motlop – POWER
Indisputably one of the most talented players in the game, Motlop is one of those players who might just find an extra gear on grand final day. He hasn’t always been adept at handling the crunch moments – think about his grimace in Launceston last year before missing a shot after the siren – but he will be desperate to prove himself on the biggest stage of all. If he can ignite, and build on his three-goal effort last week, expect some serious fireworks from the ex-Roo.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.